FX Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
SGT Markets | Sep 06, 2017 05:43AM ET
EUR/USD
Eyes on today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Last Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was disappointing. German and Spanish Retail Sales were also worse than expected. German Employment figures in stall and Italian Unemployment rate rises.
German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.
In Europe only CPI ticked up.
On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected. Also U.S. CB Consumer Confidence was higher than expected (at its highest since March).
We are facing two possible scenarios. 1) Fake breakout of both 1.19 and 1.185 will be re-absorbed (what we think most probable). 2) 1.1920 area will be violated once again. Weak Jobs Report, North Korea Crisis, Hurricanes and delayed Trumponomics are weighing on USD outlook.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the monthly and weekly trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1920
2nd Resistance: 1.1990
1st Support: 1.1856
2nd Support: 1.1756
GBP/USD
Eyes on today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
UK Services PMI worse than expected. Last UK Construction PMI also worse than expected while UK Manufacturing PMI was better than expected.
UK GDP (Preliminary release) came as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) was on the downbeat.
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On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected but U.S. GDP was surprisingly relevantly better than expected and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014).
Now we are on the Resistance in area 1.304. Eyes on the next re-test of 1.2978, first, and if successful we are bearish until 1.285 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the monthly and weekly trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3040
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2850
2nd Support: 1.2740
AUD/USD
Eyes on today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and, later, on Australia Retail Sales.
Australia GDP on the downbeat.
Last RBA interest rate decision confirmed rates as expected at 1.50%. Australia reported its current account came in at a surplus of A$9.6 billion, wider than the A$8.1 billion surplus seen in the second quarter. China's Caixin services PMI for August also jumped to 52.7, compared with a reading of 51.8 expected.
Australian Manufacturing Index better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected.
North Korea claimed it tested a hydrogen bomb, drastically raising tensions with South Korea, Japan and the United States and also angering ally China. U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said:
Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam or our allies will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming.
AUD/USD will consolidate around 0.798. Then, we are likely to see some consolidation moves around 0.7916. Only if 0.783 will be successfully violated again, then 0.7735 will be likely to be re-tested. Otherwise, there is room up over 0.804 area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the monthly and weekly trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7980
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735
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