Friday's FX Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
SGT Markets | Oct 21, 2016 05:37AM ET
EUR/USD
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0950
2nd Resistance: 1.0995
3rd Resistance: 1.1029
1st Support: 1.0904
2nd Support: 1.0840
EUR
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014
28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.
29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February
18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month
23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August
31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected
1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected
8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged
23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)
29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected
11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)
14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected
20th of October, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
ECB did not discuss a tapering regarding the purchase program or the possible horizon when it could end. Interest rates unchanged
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USD
Recent Facts:
26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.
31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected
2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years
15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected
16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected
21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further
27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)
28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed's Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income
29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected
5th of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Worse than Expected (new low since March 2014)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected (new high since December 2015)
7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected
12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’
14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”
18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected
19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected
20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected
GBP/USD
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2320
2nd Resistance: 1.2430
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968
GBP
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years
27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected
4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program
9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected
9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low
16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015
18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015
1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015
5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected
30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations
4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
5th of October, Services PMI + BoE Speech
Services PMI Slightly Better than Expected, rate expectations linked to long-term post-brexit uncertainty
18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected
19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected
20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
3rd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7660
2nd Support: 0.7525
AUD
Recent Facts:
19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote
26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared
2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected
4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected
11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected
18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year
24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected
1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected
15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance
30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected
4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend
14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia's central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank 'oligopoly' needs more reform
18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA's Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q
20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
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