France: New INSEE Business Confidence Clock

 | Jun 26, 2019 04:26AM ET

The INSEE has just developed a new graphical tool, a tracer of business confidence, that helps position the French economy within its cycle and track economic trends. The recent past is characterized by changes in the economic situation of limited magnitude but quickly evolving: the cyclical upturn in 2017 was followed by a slowdown as soon as 2018 before going back into the expansion zone since the start of 2019 but timidly so (close to the frontier with the “slowdown” quadrant).

What stands out from this chart is therefore more the hesitant, “caught in-between”, feature of the current economic situation in France rather than its favorable (and resilient) aspect. The same hesitant picture is found in the details by sector: the services indicator is barely in the expansion zone, the building construction one is comfortably in the same expansion zone, and the industry and trade indicators are not far from the “contraction” quadrant.