Forget Caterpillar, Buy These 5 Industrial Stocks Instead

 | Feb 27, 2020 09:02PM ET

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) , the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, seems to be in the doldrums at the moment. Notably, the company’s fourth-quarter top line failed to impress investors. Sales declined across the board, thanks to weak demand. Dealers continued to lower their inventory, which weighed on the company’s performance. Nevertheless, the company managed to deliver year-over-year improvement of 3% in earnings driven by strong cost control measures.

Caterpillar’s global retail sales recorded a decline of 7% in the three-month period ended January 2020, following a decline of 5% in December. The decrease in sales in December had put an abrupt end to the company’s sales growth for 33 consecutive months. The company had last witnessed negative sales growth in February 2017.

Muted Guidance

For 2020, Caterpillar expects adjusted earnings per share between $8.50 and $10.00. The mid-point of the guidance indicates a decline of 16% from 2019. End user demand is expected to decline by about 4-9% compared with 2019. Dealers are anticipated to continue reducing inventories, owing to the ongoing global economic uncertainty. Moreover, mining customers remained disciplined with their capital expenditures due to economic uncertainty that will continue to weigh on the Resource Industries segment.

Downward Estimate Revisions

In the last 30 days, 10 out of 11 analysts have revised their earnings estimates downward for the current year. The consensus estimate has declined 11% over the last 30 days. Further, Caterpillar has a trailing four-quarter negative surprise of 0.12%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Caterpillar’s earnings in fiscal 2020 is pegged at $9.41, suggesting a decline of 15% from the prior year. The estimate for revenues is at $49.4 billion, indicating a fall of 8% from the previous year.