Forex Strength And Comparison For Week 2
Forex Technical Analyst Trader | Jan 08, 2017 04:50AM ET
In the Currency Strength table the CAD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest for the second week. The GBP lost 2 points and the AUD gained 3 points last week. All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 1 point.
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13 Weeks Currency Score Strength
The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
- First of all, the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
- Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
- The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
- The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each time frame could also be consulted.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.
When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD remains the strongest of all while the EUR remains the weakest. The JPY is now a weak currency with a Average 13 wks. even below the GBP. The JPY had also 7 times a lower score compared to the GBP in the last 13 Weeks.
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The Weak Currencies
The GBP has a score of 1 and the EUR is now also going down again after a short revival in the previous weeks. The JPY is now also a weak currency and as can be seen, it followed this path coming from a strong currency. Although the weakness in this currency may be of a temporary nature it is taking longer than expected. According to the calculations for the weekly data in this article it is a weak currency.
This is however, not the case in the monthly article "Forex Strength And Comparison for January 2017" where the JPY remains the strongest currency according to the 12 Months Average Score. The currency may have enough time to recover looking from a longer term perspective and can even remain a Strong currency. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.
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Currency Score Comparison
"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.
"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
- First of all, only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
- The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
- It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4, which is exact at the half of the range, it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
- Even though currencies may be in the same classification, a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.
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Putting the pieces together
Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CAD, USD and CHF.
These are strong or neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".
For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, JPY and EUR.
These are weak or neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.
Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
CAD and NZD.
Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUR/CHF and NZD/JPY.
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