Forex Speculators Slightly Pulled Back On USD Bearish Positions
Zachary Storella | May 15, 2016 01:57AM ET
Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US Dollar net speculator positions settled at -$6.19 billion last week
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly cut back on their bearish bets of the US dollar last week after USD speculative positions had fallen for nine straight weeks.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling -$6.19 billion as of Tuesday May 10th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$0.27 billion from the -$6.46 billion total short position that was registered on May 3rd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar speculative position remains in bearish territory after turning bearish four weeks ago on April 19th. The dollar had been in bullish territory approximately for the previous two years (May 6th 2014 was the last time dollar had been bearish overall).
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the Canadian dollar (+6,931 change in weekly contracts), the British pound sterling (+5,473 contracts) and the euro (+1,747 contracts). Canadian dollar positions have continued to rise higher for fifteen straight weeks while euro positions have now gained for eight straight weeks and pound sterling positions rose for the third straight week.
Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the New Zealand dollar (+152 contracts) and the Swiss franc (+88 contracts).
Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were the Japanese yen (-2,474 change in weekly contracts), Australian dollar (-14,237 contracts) and Mexican peso (-32,800 contracts).
Get The News You Want
This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | 59737 | -7614 | -53487 | 10324 |
| 20160412 | 55803 | -3934 | -52051 | 1436 |
| 20160419 | 51940 | -3863 | -46917 | 5134 |
| 20160426 | 44726 | -7214 | -39667 | 7250 |
| 20160503 | 27558 | -17168 | -23619 | 16048 |
| 20160510 | 29484 | 1926 | -21872 | 1747 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | 70900 | 10394 | -46506 | -6478 |
| 20160412 | 74181 | 3281 | -51310 | -4804 |
| 20160419 | 71019 | -3162 | -55152 | -3842 |
| 20160426 | 67606 | -3413 | -48669 | 6483 |
| 20160503 | 56878 | -10728 | -40408 | 8261 |
| 20160510 | 55022 | -1856 | -34935 | 5473 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | -69057 | -9094 | 60073 | 5686 |
| 20160412 | -70758 | -1701 | 66190 | 6117 |
| 20160419 | -76829 | -6071 | 71870 | 5680 |
| 20160426 | -67685 | 9144 | 66498 | -5372 |
| 20160503 | -65495 | 2190 | 61521 | -4977 |
| 20160510 | -63294 | 2201 | 59047 | -2474 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | -2077 | -5228 | 5649 | 1002 |
| 20160412 | -8137 | -6060 | 8238 | 2589 |
| 20160419 | -10027 | -1890 | 9410 | 1172 |
| 20160426 | -4664 | 5363 | 9265 | -145 |
| 20160503 | -4870 | -206 | 6829 | -2436 |
| 20160510 | -978 | 3892 | 6917 | 88 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | -6488 | -10147 | 97 | 6277 |
| 20160412 | -10102 | -3614 | 2385 | 2288 |
| 20160419 | -18065 | -7963 | 7308 | 4923 |
| 20160426 | -25684 | -7619 | 11999 | 4691 |
| 20160503 | -30745 | -5061 | 18943 | 6944 |
| 20160510 | -33890 | -3145 | 25874 | 6931 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | -37235 | -1470 | 26845 | 3379 |
| 20160412 | -45114 | -7879 | 35122 | 8277 |
| 20160419 | -53551 | -8437 | 44106 | 8984 |
| 20160426 | -68470 | -14919 | 59540 | 15434 |
| 20160503 | -58577 | 9893 | 52395 | -7145 |
| 20160510 | -42718 | 15859 | 38158 | -14237 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | -2793 | -1136 | 2903 | 1029 |
| 20160412 | -3974 | -1181 | 4292 | 1389 |
| 20160419 | -5959 | -1985 | 5351 | 1059 |
| 20160426 | -9373 | -3414 | 7384 | 2033 |
| 20160503 | -10543 | -1170 | 9200 | 1816 |
| 20160510 | -9689 | 854 | 9352 | 152 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160405 | 33303 | -8558 | -31878 | 8918 |
| 20160412 | 47092 | 13789 | -46591 | -14713 |
| 20160419 | 13463 | -33629 | -14409 | 32182 |
| 20160426 | 19344 | 5881 | -19315 | -4906 |
| 20160503 | 12550 | -6794 | -12420 | 6895 |
| 20160510 | 47903 | 35353 | -45220 | -32800 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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