EUR/USD: Grexit A Non-Factor
PipHut | Mar 03, 2015 05:34AM ET
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: We've been slowly building up equity in PRO this month (despite the infrequent free daily analysis), netting another 195 pips in the past couple weeks. The Euro has once again fallen below 1.12 in its weakness against the USD and under the shadow of the Greece showdown. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the current European Union reminds me of the pre-U.S. "Articles of Confederation," a loose collection of states all with different laws and a weak central government. Ultimate the Articles of Confederation died and was replaced by the modern U.S. constitution and government - in other words it was a stopgap government. Will the current iteration of the EU also be a stop-gap government? I think so. It will either dissolve, or become a more authoritative central government. But that is not a quick process - for us day traders the timeline for any Grexit or EU modification is so extended as to nearly be a pointless consideration, other than how it effects the technical trend (bearish).
4h Chart
Our Preferred Trades*: The latest leg down has re-opened the bearish short-term trend and we have placed a sell limit at 1.1290, SL at 1.1325, TP at 1.1190.
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Yesterday's EUR/USD SwingPRO Signal Result: Our last EU trade, entered February 16, ultimate hit our TP (we closed out a little early for 95 pips).
Today's SwingPRO Signal: Short on support breaks. See preferred trade setup above.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and "our preferred trades." For example, if we prefer "going short" or "selling a rally" then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer "going long" or "buying a dip" then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today's Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Mar 2 |
00:00 | AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN) | -1.9% | ||
| 01:35 | JPY Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI (FEB F) | 51.6 | 51.5 | ||
| 08:30 | CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (FEB) | 47.3 | 47.3 | 48.2 | |
| 09:30 | GBP Net Consumer Credit (JAN) | 0.8B | 0.9B | 0.5B | |
| 09:30 | GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN) | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.6B | |
| 09:30 | GBP Mortgage Approvals (JAN) | 60.8K | 61.0K | 60.3K | |
| 09:30 | GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (FEB) | 54.1 | 53.4 | 53.1 | |
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JAN) | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | |
| 10:00 | EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product (2014) | -0.4% | -0.4% | -1.7% | |
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (FEB) | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.6% | |
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB A) | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Income (JAN) | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Spending (JAN) | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.3% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JAN) | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 15:00 | USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JAN) | -1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15:00 | USD ISM Manufacturing (FEB) | 52.9 | 53.0 | 53.5 | |
| 15:00 | USD ISM Prices Paid (FEB) | 35 | 37 | 35 | |
| 23:50 | JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (FEB) | 37.4% | |||
| 23:50 | JPY Monetary Base End of period (FEB) | ¥278.6T | |||
| 23:50 | JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JAN) | 3.06 |
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