FX Round-Up: Greek Tragedy Continues, USD Strengthens
Anna Coulling | Jun 23, 2015 03:36AM ET
As the Greek tragedy continues to drag on, it’s perhaps an apposite time to take a tour round the four major futures of the 6A, the 6B, the 6C and the 6E for the September contract. For each it is the move in the US dollar which is taking center stage this morning following the deep hammer candle on the daily chart.
If we start with with Aussie dollar, the pair continue to trade in a narrow range trading between 0.7770 to the upside and 0.7550 to the downside, with the ceiling of resistance well defined with the red dotted line. What is perhaps most revealing here is the lack of volume over the last two days, with the move lower accompanied by volume which is well below average, suggesting a lack of selling pressure at present. The current price action is also reflected on the currency strength indicator alongside, with the Aussie dollar (the blue line) meandering sideways and confirming the picture on the daily chart.
Moving to the 6B and the GBP/USD, the recent bullish trend for the pair appears to be reaching a pause point following the strong move from 1.5170 to 1.5930. With nine consecutive up candles, it is no surprise to see the pair reversing off the highs of the last few days. As mentioned earlier, the minor recovery in the US dollar this morning is helping to push the pair lower, and as with the Aussie dollar, volumes over the last two days have been relatively low, suggesting a lack of selling pressure at present.
However, the key issue here is on the currency strength indicator to the left of the chart with the GBP ( the yellow line) now well into the overbought region on the indicator, suggesting a possible longer term reversal in due course. But as always, we do need to remember currencies and markets can stay overbought and oversold for some time, and all the indicator is signalling is the pound is now at an interesting and potential tipping point.
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For the 6C and the CAD/USD, the most significant price action was on Thursday last week with the pair closing as a deep shooting star candle with the high of the session bouncing of the resistance level above in the 0.8235 region, duly confirmed with a pivot high. Since then, the pair has remained weak with a possible move lower to test the strong platform of support now in place in the 0.8050 region. Any move through here will then open the way to a deeper move down to the 0.7940 region in the longer term.
Finally to everyone’s favorite, the 6E, the euro. Once again a feature of the price action of the last few days has been the low volume associated with the price action, as many traders and investors are simply waiting and watching for the issues in Greece to be resolved (or not).
This morning’s price action has taken the pair back through the platform of support in the 1.1300 region as uncertainty continues to dominate, helped lower with a dose of US dollar strength. However, it is interesting to note, as with the GBP, the euro is now increasingly overbought on the currency strength indicator. Should the resistance now building in the 1.1450 area continue to hold, then we could see a longer-term reversal from this level in due course.
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