Forex Futures Speculators Decreased U.S. Dollar Bullish Positions
Zachary Storella | Aug 21, 2016 02:15AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators reduced their US dollar bullish bets lower for the third consecutive week last week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$9.81 billion as of Tuesday August 16th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters.
This was a weekly change of -$1.60 billion from the +$11.41 billion total long position that was registered on August 9th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The aggregate US dollar speculative position has now fallen under the +$10 billion level for the first time since July 12th when the spec position totaled +$8.01 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the Mexican peso (+8,639 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (+7,175 contracts), Australian dollar (+6,229 contracts) and the euro (+5,891 contracts).
The currencies on the downside of speculative bets versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-4,156 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,893 contracts), the Swiss franc (-1,652 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-82 contracts).
Notable changes:
- Euro and Japanese yen speculative positions have gained for three straight weeks
- British pound positions dropped for a seventh straight week and are close to the -100,000 spec contracts threshold
- Swiss franc positions declined last week and net positions dropped back into a small overall short position
- Canadian dollar bets declined for a third week and the overall CAD net bullish position is at its lowest level in six weeks
- New Zealand dollar positions edged slightly lower and remained in a small overall short position
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Read market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.Get The AppThis latest COT data is through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British Pound Sterling:
Japanese Yen:
Swiss Franc:
Canadian Dollar:
Australian Dollar:
New Zealand Dollar:
Mexican Peso:
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair). See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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