Weekly Currency Score, Week 46
Forex Technical Analyst Trader | Nov 08, 2015 12:45AM ET
The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list, which was published earlier this weekend. Besides this analysis and the corresponding chart, I also provide the forex ranking and rating list.
It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. This article will provide my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 time frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the 2 screenshots in this article showing the Currency Score and the Currency Score Difference.
Last 3 months currency classification
The last 3 months currency classifications from a longer term perspective are provided for reference purposes. The necessary charts can be found in the previous article Weekly Currency Score, Week 45. The currencies are classified for the coming weeks as follows:
- Strong: GBP / USD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
- Average: CHF / EUR / JPY / NZD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
- Weak: AUD / CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.
The EUR may become a weak currency if it remains this weak in the coming period.
The CAD may become an average currency if it remains this strong in the coming period.
Currency Score
For analyzing the best pairs to trade the last 3 months, currency classification is the first issue. When looking at the most recent score that is used for the coming period, we can see in the screenshot below the deviations and we can come to certain conclusions. These are explained below the screenshot.
In essence, it boils down to the 3 following lines of text:
- A strong currency can be traded long against all the other currencies except on a pullback (deviation): then it seems best to trade it only against a weak currency.
- A weak currency can be traded short against all the other currencies except on a pullback (deviation): then it seems best to trade it only against a strong currency.
- When an average currency is outside the range (deviation), it is best not to trade it against its own currencies in the average range and the currencies in the range it is at.
Get The News You Want
Because the text above is quite abstract, you can read below a more detailed description.
According to the Ranking and Rating list already published this weekend, the following pair combinations look interesting:
- EUR/USD with the AUD/CAD
- AUD/USD with the EUR/GBP
- NZD/USD with the EUR/GBP
We will fit each pair in the right group here below if possible.
Strong currencies
- There is a deviation for the GBP with a score of 5. This is a strong currency and it should have by preference a score from 7 to 8.
- There is most probably a pullback for the GBP when looking at the market as a whole; the uptrend has lost momentum.
- The GBP has a score at the moment of an average currency and it seems best to be traded going long against the weak currencies.
- There are no other deviations meaning that the other strong currency (the USD), seems best for trading, depending on the opportunities coming around,.in the following ways:
- going long against the average currencies. The pairs selected from the Ranking and Rating list are the EUR/USD and the NZD/USD.
- going long against the weak currencies. The pair selected from the Ranking and Rating list is the AUD/USD.
Average currencies
- There is a deviation for the EUR with a score of 1. This is an average currency and it should have by preference a score from 3 to 6.
- There is a decrease of momentum for the EUR which is getting weaker.
- The EUR has a score at the moment of a weak currency and it seems best to be traded going short against the strong currencies. The pair selected from the Ranking and Rating list is the EUR/USD.
- There are no other deviations meaning that the other average currencies (CHF, JPY and NZD) seems best for trading, depending on the opportunities coming around, in the following ways:
- going short against the strong currencies. The pair selected from the Ranking and Rating list is the NZD/USD.
- going long against the weak currencies
Weak currencies
- There is a deviation for the CAD with a score of 7. This is a weak currency and it should have by preference a score from 1 to 2.
- There is most probably a pullback for the CAD when looking at the market as a whole; the downtrend has lost momentum.
- The CAD has a score at the moment of a strong currency and it seems best to be traded going short against the strong currencies.
- There are no other deviations meaning that the other weak currency (the AUD) seems best for trading, depending on the opportunities coming around, in the following ways:
- going short against the strong currencies. The pair selected from the Ranking and Rating list is the AUD/USD.
- going short against the average currencies
Summary:
- The weak currencies against the EUR are most probably ranging and there are most probably no opportunities in the Top 10 of this week "Ranking and Rating list."
- The GBP and the CAD may offer a good opportunity to step in. However, it is important to determine if the specific pair is indeed having a pullback. For that reason, it is good to see the momentum returning in that pair, check the "Ranking and Rating list." If there is momentum then check also the"Currency score difference" table.
- All the other pairs may be in a trend when complying to the "Currency score difference" table, which can be seen here below. There are most probably opportunities in the Top 10 of this week "Ranking and Rating list."
- The pairs from the Ranking and Rating list that fit well in the group above are the AUD/USD, EUR/USD and the NZD/USD.
- By using the (1)"Ranking and Rating list" with the (2)above Weekly Currency Score analysis and the (3)"Currency score difference" table with the (4)Bollinger Band® analysis provided here below, a good foundation is provided for looking at the Weekly and Daily Technical analysis chart of a specific pair.
Currency Score difference
According to the Ranking and Rating list already published this weekend, the following pair combinations look interesting:
- EUR/USD with the AUD/CAD
- AUD/USD with the EUR/GBP
- NZD/USD with the EUR/GBP
When looking at the Currency Score Table here below for this week, we can see the currency score differences. The interesting pairs should have by preference a score difference of 4 or higher when they are similarly classified. Or the better classified pair should have a higher score than the counterpart. All the pairs mentioned above comply for trading in the coming week. The Currencies are colored Green, Orange and Red resp. by the classification they have. This way it is easier to see what currencies should have a certain score difference.
The technical analysis is the most important issue to consider before taking positions. The Weekly Chart is analyzed. I prefer the Bollinger Band for defining where a pair is in the chart. Once a pair is outside a Bollinger Band, it is in a strong trend, which can cause a strong pullback. Although this may be a good opportunity for other analysts, I avoid taking positions because of the possible unexpected strong pullback. Positions are only opened inside the Bollinger Band and this may be at the start of a possible trend or on a good pullback in an existing trend.
- The EUR/USD is in a downtrend and just outside the Bollinger Band. Most probably it will be inside when trading starts again.
- The AUD/CAD is in a downtrend and within the Bollinger Band. There are most probably better opportunities because these are 2 weak currencies!
- The AUD/USD is in a downtrend and within the Bollinger Band.
- The EUR/GBP is in a downtrend and within the Bollinger Band.
- The NZD/USD is in a downtrend and within the Bollinger Band.
When trading according to the FxTaTrader Strategy, some rules are in place. For more information, see the page on my blog FxTaTrader Strategy. Depending on the opportunities that may come up, the decision to trade a currency may become more obvious at that moment. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.
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