Forex Critical: Relief For AUD, CAD, MXN
Dr. Duru | Sep 13, 2018 03:42AM ET
It was a simple headline from the Wall Street Journal but enough to turn the tide for trade-sensitive plays: “U.S. Proposes New Trade Talks With China to Avert Tariffs.”
The reported talks are proposed for later this month, but the market wasted no time in responding. In the world of foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar (DX) weakened across the board. The Canadian dollar (NYSE:FXC), the Mexican Peso and the Australian dollar (NYSE:FXA all benefited greatly. In particular, the bounce in the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen (NYSE:FXY) took AUD/JPY right to its downtrending 20-day moving average (DMA) where I decided to take profits on my latest accumulated position .
AUD/PJY is bouncing sharply off its low but can it break through its latest downtrend (well-defined by its 20DMA)?
For the next round going long AUD/JPY, I will likely be slower to buy back in. After all, despite the presumed fundamental positives supporting the Australian dollar , the Aussie has descended back into the ominous technicals of broken support and new downtrends.
Since I am highly skeptical that the renewed call for trade talks with China will produce results, I made a play for a quick reversal by going long USD/CAD. Indeed, the next headline could announce a rebuff from the Chinese, a backtracking from the U.S. on these headlines, and/or China demanding pre-conditions that the U.S. will refuse. In other words, the potential for a follow-on downside surprise appears much higher than an upside one in the short-term.
USD/CAD earlier broke out of its downtrend, but momentum stopped cold after that. Now, the Canadian dollar is pushing the pair back below its 20 and 50DMAs.
I am more torn on the Mexican peso. I have consistently looked for spots to fade USD/MXN; yet, I missed most of the latest fade because the currency pair’s breakout above the 200DMA made me wary about the potential for a lot more upside. Now, USD/MXN’s breakdown below that 200DMA has me wanting to fade again. Only my skepticism in the quick trigger reaction to the headlines keeps me on the sidelines. I will revisit my hesitation if USD/MXN manages to break down below its 50DMA.
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After over-extending to the upside above its upper-Bollinger® Band, USD/MXN is pushing through supports at its 20 and 200DMAs.
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long USD/CAD
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