Forex Analysis 2018.07.18
SGT Markets | Jul 18, 2018 06:47AM ET
EUR/USD
Eyes to Eurozone CPI data. Ears out to U.S. Fed Chair Powell testimony.
U.S. Consumer Price Index confirmed the expectations after U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) ticked higher than expected.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment data came relevantly below the expectations.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls rose over expectations but Unemployment Rate increased back to the 4% area of the first semester of this year.
The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are neutral from oversold. We consider probable another test below 1.17 area and this is happening. First consolidation area: 1.1570.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1567
2nd Support: 1.1490
GBP/USD
Eyes to UK CPI data. Ears out to U.S. Fed Chair Powell testimony.
Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.
The US Dollar is seeing a soft walkback across the G10 broader market, but the Sterling remains subdued as Brexit concerns keep the Pound on the downside.
Yearly lows for the pair remain close by, and bearish pressure remains taut.
Recently, UK CPI (inflation) as expected while U.S. CPI (inflation) ticked up.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are neutral from oversold. We expect a drop back to 1.32 area and this is happening at the moment. Next consolidation area could be around 1.3060 Demand area.
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Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3060
2nd Support: 1.2880
AUD/USD
Eyes to Australia Employment Change, later today.
U.S. Consumer Price Index confirmed the expectations, after U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) ticked higher than expected.
U.S. Unemployment Rate increased back to the 4% area of the first semester of this year.
In Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment in July rose relevantly marking a +3.9% and Home Loans in sounding positive territory as well.
Last Australia GDP ticked up after a row of three months below the expectations.
A possible trade war between the US and China took a step closer to becoming reality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the Meeting Minutes of their latest rate decision, and little of note was there to entice Aussie traders to hit the buy button. The central bank is set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future as Australian growth figures continue to miss the mark.
We are neutral from oversold. We consider very probable a new test in 0.73 area for testing a strong Support area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7339
2nd Support: 0.7301
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