For The Moms: Gold And Cotton

 | May 07, 2014 03:29PM ET

The women I know love clothes and gold and I think both -- at least at the wholesale level -- will be going on sale in the very near future. US Cotton No.2 prices have been dancing the up-sloping trend line for the past 6 months as seen on the chart below. Current prices have July futures higher by 19% off their December lows. As of this post futures are lower by 1.38% in today's session and challenging the up-sloping white trend line. I am thinking we break the trend line in the coming sessions and at a minimum we see a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 88 cents.

For now, bulls remain in the driver's seat but momentum appears to be turning. Export sales are rumored to be light this week so I think some longs are booking profits ahead of Thursday's number and also we have a USDA report on Friday. Open interest remains high -- the highest since Nov. 13 -- which leads me to believe that if and when we turn and if the longs puke, it COULD accentuate the move lower.