Littlefish FX | Dec 17, 2014 05:59AM ET
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY:
0930GMT GBP Unemployment Rate exp 5.9% v 6.0%
0930GMT GBP Claimant Count Change exp -19.8K v -20.4K
0930GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y exp 1.3% v 1.0%
0930GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes exp 2-0-7 v 2-0-7
0930GMT GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes exp 0-0-9 v 0-0-9
1000GMT EUR Final CPI y/y exp 0.3% v 0.3%
1330GMT USD Current Account exp -98B v-99B
1330GMT USD CPI m/m exp -0.1% v0.0%
1330GMT USD Core CPI m/m exp 0.1% v 0.2%
1900GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
1900GMT USD FOMC Statement
1900GMT USD Federal Funds Rate exp 0.25% v 0.25%
1930GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
OVERNIGHT:
EUR/USD edged higher yesterday and broke resistance at 1.2500 after the release of Eurozone December PMI data. The manufacturing PMI printed at 50.8 vs. 50.5 exp, while service PMI was 51.0 vs. 51.5 exp. EUR/USD posted a high of 1.2569 upon the better than expected Zew data, the expectations index improved further to 34.9 vs. 20.0 exp. EUR/USD has pulled back overnight as postions are squared ahead of the FOMC today.
UK CPI rose by an annual 1.0 percent in November, compared with 1.3 percent in October, while British inflation fell to its lowest level in more than 12 years in November. This further eased the squeeze on consumers and left the Bank of England under no pressure to raise interest rates. GBP/USD got a boost and squeezed above 1.5700 and reaching an intraday high at 1.5785.
USD/JPY plunged to a 1-month low from yesterdays high of 118.01 to a low of 115.56 while investors show concerns about global growth. A slip in the Markit/HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI for December was a risk-off driver yesterday and JPY flowed on the back of a safe haven buying. Investors will now focus on the FOMC today watching for signals about the central banks timeline for raising interest rate.
Elsewhere Activity in China’s factory sector contracted this month for the first time in seven months and the weak economic indicators added to concerns about oil demand from the world’s second-largest oil consumer, weighing on the AUD/USD at multi year lows and supporting the USD/CAD at multi year highs.
Looking ahead this morning we the Bank of England minutes ahead of US CPI and the much anticipated FOMC rate decision and press conference with Fed Chair Yellen.
OVERNIGHT PRICE ACTION:
EUR: Breaks 1.25 stiffer test at 1.26 eyed
GBP: Trend line and 2 month range resistance challenged
JPY: Channel support to be tested
CAD: 5 year highs, consolidation continues
AUD: New multi year lows, 0.80 eyed
KEY TRADES:
FX Pair | Short Term | Position/Date | Entry Level | Target | Stop | Comments |
EUR/USD | Bullish | BUY 13 DEC | 1.2495 | OPEN | 1.2345 | |
GBP/USD | Neutral | Await new signal | ||||
USD/JPY | Neutral | Await new signal | ||||
USD/CAD | Bullish | BUY 9th DEC | 1.1495 | 1.1695 | 1.1545 | Risk Free |
AUD/USD | Bearish | Await new signal |
ANALYSIS:
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
USD/CAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
AUD/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.