Financial Sector ETF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target
Chris Vermeulen | Nov 24, 2021 11:55PM ET
The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (NYSE:XLF) ETF may have frightened some traders. My research, however, suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60—a more than +11% move.
The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations powerfully into the first quarter of 2022. Unless something big breaks this market trend, traders should continue to expect a “melt-up” bullish price trend through at least early January 2022.
The Financial sector continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue data each quarter. The way consumers and assets prices have reacted after the COVID market collapse says quite a bit about the ability of financial firms to generate future profits.
Financial firms are actively engaged in financial services, traditional banking, real estate and other investments, and corporate financing. The rising inflation trends and consumer spending activities suggest the US economy is still rallying after the COVID stimulus and recovery.
Financial Sector ETF May Rally 10% To 15%, Or More, By January 2022/h2
My analysis of XLF suggests this recent pullback in price may stall and start a new bullish price rally targeting the $43.60 level—a full 100% Fibonacci Price Extension of its last rally.
This daily XLF chart shows the extended rally in early 2021 and its brief pause between June 2021 and early September 2021. Now that we’ve entered Q4:2021 and the US economy appears to be strengthening in the post-COVID recovery, I expect that most sectors—and the US major indexes—will rally throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022.
This recent pullback in XLF sets up a solid buying opportunity for traders targeting a +10% rally that may last well into January/February 2022—or longer.
Over the past 6+ months, moderate rally phases in XLF have shown a range of about $4.00 to $4.50. I’ve highlighted two recent rally phases in XLF on this longer-term XLF daily chart below with gold rectangles. I believe the next rally from the recent pullback will be similar in size and prompt a moderate upward price move targeting the $43.60 level—or higher.
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Although there are some concerns related to the continuing recovery in the US markets, I believe the momentum of the US recovery and the strength in the US dollar will push many US sectors higher over the next 60+ days. Closing out Q4:2021 and starting Q1:2022 with a reasonably strong rally that may surprise many traders.
The Financial sector is likely to present very strong Q4:2021 revenues and earnings data as long as the global markets don’t push some crisis event or other issue that could detract from the US economic recovery. Right now, the most significant issues seem to be China and Europe.
My opinion is that any moderate price weakness in the Financial sector will be short-lived and will resolve into a bullish price rally, or “melt-upward” type of trend, as we move into early December 2021. Once the US Debt Ceiling issue resolves, I believe the Financial sector will begin a very strong rally pushing prices above $44 or $45 as Q4:2021 earnings expectations drive investors’ focus into Technology, Consumer Retail, Financials, and Real Estate.
The strength of the US dollar is driving large amounts of capital into US assets and stocks right now. Based on my research, it is very likely that the US major indexes and certain sectors will continue to rally into early January 2022. If my analysis proves accurate, we may see a +11% to +18% rally in XLF before the end of January.
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