Financial Markets Struggle To Find Momentum
ActionForex | Oct 14, 2016 02:27AM ET
The financial markets are struggling to find follow through momentum to extend recent moves. DJIA dipped to as low as 17959.95 overnight but quickly recovered to close at 18098.94. The brief breach of 17992.21 is seen as a false breakout from recent range of 17992.21/18449.98. And, the correction from 18668.43 high is yet to find momentum to extend lower. 10 year yield jumped to as high as 1.801 earlier in the week but lost momentum and retreated to close at 1.738 yesterday. WTI crude oil reached as high as 51.60 but lost momentum ahead of 51.67 resistance and turned sideway, revolving around 50 handle. Gold also turned sideway after diving to 1243.2 last week and gyrates around 1255/60. Meanwhile, dollar index retreats after breaching 98.0 and could start to struggle to find buying momentum above 97.56 resistance.
In the currency markets, for the week, strength is seen in commodity currencies in general despite some volatility while Dollar stays firm. Sterling is leading other European majors trading lower, followed by Yen. EUR/CAD is among the biggest movers this week and the development is raising the chance that medium term correction from 1.4173 has completed at 1.4923 already. Focus is turning back to 1.4378 support. Break will confirm this case and would likely extend the decline from 1.6103 through 1.4173 low to 61.8% projection of 1.6103 to 1.4173 from 1.4923 at 1.3730.
CAD/JPY is another pair to watch for the near term. Bullish convergence condition in daily MACD since earlier this year is raising the chance of medium term bottoming. But break of 80.29 is needed to confirm bullish reversal. In that case, rebound from 75.38 would be treated to a correction to long term down trend from 2014 high at 106.48 at least. And there would be prospect of climbing back to 88.78 resistance in medium term. However, rejection from 80.29 would extend the down trend through 75.38. Both the development in EUR/CAD and CAD/JPY could depend on whether WTI oil price could break through 51.67 resistance decisively.
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On the data front, Japan domestic CGPI dropped -3.2% yoy in September, M2 rose 3.6% yoy. China CPI jumped to 1.9% yoy in September while PPI rose to 0.1% yoy. Swiss PPI, UK construction output and Eurozone trade balance will be released in European session. US will release retail sales, PPI and business inventories.
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