FedEx Earnings Preview: Technical Charts Hint at Potential Weakness Post Results

FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) is a key global transportation and logistic player focusing on express, ground and freight segments.

The company has demonstrated resilience through its DRIVE program, achieving $540 million in cost savings toward its $4 billion target by FY2025. FedEx's strategic initiatives include the ongoing Network 2.0 optimization, which has already enhanced 200 stations and targets $2 billion in savings by FY2027.

Factors to watch:

• The potential spin-off of FedEx's Freight business could unlock $10-20 billion in shareholder value by a higher valuation multiple as a standalone entity.
• Successful integration of Express and Ground networks could lead to significant cost savings, improved service quality, and enhanced operational efficiency.
• Execution risks in network integration could lead to operational disruptions, cost overruns, employee morale issues, and delays in synergy realization.
• Policy changes, including tariff increases and de minimis rule changes, could negatively impact FedEx's international operations and overall business model.

Analysts’ Price targets:

• This week, Citi lowered the price target on FedEx to $317 from $347 and kept a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares, according to TheFly.

JP Morgan analysts noted that results for the quarter should mostly meet expectations, although the brokerage does not expect a material update for the spin-off of FedEx Freight.

Source: InvestingPro

FDX Q3 2025 earnings at 4:03 pm ET Thursday March 20, 2025

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30 beats since Q4 2012

18 Misses

Financial Health History

Financial Health for FedEx is determined by ranking the company on over 100 factors against companies in the Industrials sector and operating in Developed economic markets.

Source: InvestingPro

Option Statistics:

Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:

• With Put/Call ratio between 0.7141 to 1.4327 for the next four upcoming expiries suggest that the overall option traders’ position is mixed to mild bearish.
• Lower earnings and guidance could trigger a sharp sell-off.
• Better than expected guidance would trigger a gradual sell-off.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• FedEx formed a double top like technical pattern from May 2021 to July 24 – Dec 2024.
• Prices penetrated a rising trendline originating from October 2022.
• Earnings are a good catalyst for a drop in stock price due to a break below a long-term rising trendline.
• Stock is targeting 220 to 202 support region post earnings.
• A strong and sustain move above 260 – 262 obstacles would negate the downside outlook.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

FDX Seasonality Chart:

• FDX closes 2.9% higher in March, 65% of the time since 2006.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly Twitter “@twtlearning.”

Written By: Ali Merchant