Fed Says Two Or Three More Rate Hikes In 2018
MrTopStep | Mar 23, 2018 01:51AM ET
- In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -0.52%, Hang Seng -1.09%, Nikkei +0.99%
- In Europe 12 out of 12 markets are trading lower: CAC -1.13%, DAX -1.11%, FTSE -0.98%
- Fair Value: S&P +2.72, NASDAQ +20.24, Dow +3.94
- Total Volume: 1.4mil ESM, and 888 SPM traded in the pit
Today’s economic calendar includes the Weekly Bill Settlement, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET, PMI Composite Flash 9:45 AM ET, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET, Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET.
h2 S&P 500 Futures: Fed Day Ruckus / S&P Falls, Bond Yields And Oil Prices Rise/h2Yesterday in ‘Our View’ we said it was going to be a slow morning, and after a globex range of 10.50 handles, the 8:30 am cash session opened at 2720.25, down -4.00 handles. The first move in the S&P 500 futures was a break to make a 2515.25 low about 20 minutes into the session, two handles below yesterday’s low. From there, the futures chopped in a 7.75 handle range until, buyers came in at the Euro close, pushing the ES up to 2734.00. After that, the ES took a breather, trading back down to 2725.00 before the 1:00 pm cst FOMC number.
On the Fed release, the futures popped up to 2744.00 in the first ten minutes post reaction, then up +20.50 handles on the day, before selling off quickly back to 2724.25 just ten minutes later. The next move was back up to 2742.00 before quieting down briefly, and that’s when the floor fell out, leading to a move to a new low at 2712.50, down -11.00 handles. After the low, the ES rallied back up and double topped two ticks below the vwap, pulled back down to 2718.75, and then traded one tick above the vwap at 2726.00, had a small pullback, and then traded back up to 2733.25.
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As the MiM went from $189 million to sell to $800 million to sell, the ES sold off down to the 2722.00, before popping back up to 22729.00. When the MiM started to dropped back, the ES sold back off all the way back down to 2714.25, and traded 2715.25 on the 3:00 cash close. The futures upticked to 2718.75, and went on to settle at 2718.25 on the 3:15 futures close, down -5.5 handles, or -0.20%
In the end, it was another day of ups and down, and failed rallies. Volume was low in the beginning of the day, and picked up late in the day. As for the S&P’s overall tone, it still feels like it wants to go higher.
EQUITIES: Powell “In some areas, asset prices are elevated”.
Yesterday, ESM spiked near the 2745 upside pivotal area (sell) after the FOMC rate announcement, then dipped to test initial pivot pt support at 2712.50. Today ESM is gaining momentum below the 2712 support. 2685 is the short term .786 and our initial target. A clean break of this level would likely see the .618 retrace from the Feb low at 2637.50.
Our View: What a day! The ES was up, it was down, it was all around. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the week after the March quad witching has been down 20 out of the last 30, and down 5 of the last 6. Additionally, March is historically weak late in the month.
VIX 3 Day Chart
While I may think the ES wants to go up today, I don’t think it’s time to say things are just going to get better right away. As I have said many times, after the VIX popped up to 50.30 in early February, it will take time to mend that fence, and with all the headlines about the China trade wars, Trump’s female problems, Mueller’s team indicating 4 main areas it wants to ask the President about, and calling Putin to congratulate his victory, things do not seem to be getting any better. Even the staunchest Trump supporters have been taken aback by some of his antics recently.
That said, it make for some great trading markets! Our view is that we lean to buying the early weakness and selling the rallies. Right now the pattern that sticks out the most is one thing… failed rallies. Will that change? It could, but it seems like the markets are just waiting on the next bad headline.
PitBull: CLK OSC 30/0 turns down on a close below 62.82; ESM OSC -22/2 turns up on a close above 2714.74; VIX OSC 14/-2 turns down on a close below 19.61.
h2 Market Vitals Technical Analysis for Thursday 03-22-2018/h2Market Vitals Technical Analysis for Thursday 03-22-2018
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