FCX Long-Term Reversal: What's Next?
Ivan Beljan | May 11, 2016 12:55PM ET
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX) is a premier U.S.-based natural resource company with an industry leading global portfolio of mineral assets, significant oil and gas resources. The company has come into focus this year as it rallied 60% YTD after a multi-year downtrend.
Weekly Chart
Two key takeaways from the 10-year weekly chart (logarithmic scale):
1) The stock is prone to fast moves. Check the velocity of the downtrend in 2008 and 2014-2015 and the uptrend in 2009 and 2016.
2) The stock has a strong history of reacting at support/resistance levels.
There was a double top in 2008 and 2011 just above $50. See the 2012-2015 channel between support at $24 and resistance at $37.50, which broke down in late 2014 and got a re-test in 2015. Latest example is resistance at $14.
Daily Chart
Zooming in, the daily chart shows the resistance line that got hit on April 29th. Price may be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with left shoulder at last summer lows, head at January lows and right shoulder about to be made.
A slight pullback to the summer of 2015 low area would shake out a lot of hot money that is currently in the stock and replace it with stronger holders. A minor bottom in that area would make a higher low against the January low and provide a great entry point.
The Trade
There are two options for a bullish trade:
The first one relies on a higher low that would go in line with the head and shoulders pattern. Wait for a minor low to be made and go long against it in anticipation of a breakout above $14.
Get The News You Want
The second option implies waiting for the resistance line to be broken. This is the textbook version that can still work great, particularly if the stock does not break it while extended on momentum oscillators.
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