EconMatters | Jul 08, 2018 02:19AM ET
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) Legal Troubles Far From Over
On Friday Facebook hit an all time high of over $203 a share, and all it took to run up the stock 5% or $11 in two days was an analyst upgrade, but that is what you get in bubble stocks in a bubble market. Right as Facebook was about to break ket technical support around $192 a share on more troubles regarding privacy disclosure issues, an analyst came out with this upgrade out of his ass propelling the stock to a new high. The timing of the analyst call seems highly questionable as Facebook was at this level a couple of weeks ago, and then new information regarding the FBI, FTC and the SEC joining the Justice Department`s investigation into Facebook`s Cambridge Analytica disclosures sent the stock reeling, and on the verge of breaking down hard below the $192 support level, before being magically revived by this analyst call. You think somebody was stuck this stock at all time highs and needed an analyst upgrade to have some other bagholders to sell into going into earnings? That is my best guess! This is Wall Street we are talking about, and things usually don`t just magically appear out of thin air!
2.4 Billion Outstanding Shares=Too Large A Float
He also didn`t focus on the high P/E of the stock with difficult comps year over year, especially given the data scandal, or the 2.4 Billion shares outstanding in the float versus the other momentum stocks with much smaller floats, or the fact that Facebook has already run up a ridiculous amount since 2013, with an upcoming recession just around the corner.
The analyst never mentioned what the downside target is in the stock! These analysts just think stocks go up forever, there are no such things as bad quarters, business cycles that end, and economic recessions. Not to mention high borrowing costs year over year due to the interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve. The cheap money of the easy borrowing QE Era is over for stocks. Valuations are going to matter, bubbles pop, and somebody is left buying at the top of the market, and finding no magic chairs left for them when the music stops playing.
So the analysts always talk about the upside target, but remember when they were pumping up Valeant stock at over $250 a share, did analysts ever tell you in the midst of that pump job, that the downside risk was that the stock would be below $20 a share in less than a year? Well my first downside target is $150 a share, then $100 a share as the major decade long headwind which we will call the QE Central Bank Bubble Valuations Era comes crashing down along with ridiculous Tech Bubble 2000 like Valuations.
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