Expect A Blowout Win by Syriza In Greece
Mike (Mish) Shedlock | Jan 20, 2015 01:44AM ET
Conventional wisdom on Greece is that Syriza will win but will fall short of winning a sufficient margin to avoid having to form a coalition.
From Bloomberg Racing to Catch Syriza
"It will prove hard for Syriza to secure a majority in the 300-seat parliament, and even if they do, it will still be a fragile, slim majority," said Aristides Hatzis, an associate professor of law and economics at the University of Athens.
A Wall Street Journal report yesterday said
"most surveys indicate that Syriza wouldn’t be able to secure enough votes—even with the bonus—to get an absolute majority in Parliament, forcing it to seek coalition partners."
The question then would be "Greek Polls Show Syriza on Cusp of Victory; Greek Political Party Analysis; Intentions Matter Not I commented ...
Syriza's lead has generally been shrinking, but all of the polls have Syriza in the lead. Polls are pretty volatile. Leads swing from 3 to 10 points depending on polling organization. ... But the important factor is all the polls are in agreement. Unless and until that changes, the odds for Syriza are likely better than the polls indicate.
Based on voter break that I expect will strongly favor of Syriza, I now predict a "surprise" blowout of sufficient proportion that no coalition is needed.
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