EUR/USD Under Pressure As U.S. Dollar Surges
Dmitriy Gurkovskiy | Oct 04, 2021 06:32AM ET
EUR/USD remains under pressure at the start of the week and is currently moving close to 1.1600. Almost everyone likes the “greenback” right now, and it’s easy to explain why: investors are waiting for the US Fed to back up its words about an early reduction of the Quantitative Easing (QE) program with actions.
Last Friday’s statistics published by the US were a mixed bag. The personal spending in August increased by 0.8% MoM, which exceeded expectations. At the same time, the July reading was revised downwards to 0.1% MoM. Meanwhile, personal income increased by 0.2% MoM.
On the other hand, the numbers for September were good. For example, the ISM Manufacturing PMI moved up to 61.1 points from 59.9 points the month before. The Markit Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 60.7 points after being 60.5 in July.
Revival of businesses and improvement of sentiment are positive signals. It means that companies and enterprises do not see significant risks in the upcoming tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.
h2 Technical Outlook/h2In the H4 chart, after completing the descending wave at 1.1600, EUR/USD forms the first ascending impulse towards 1.1656 and may later correct to reach 1.1598, thus creating a new consolidation range between the two latter levels.
After that, the instrument may break this range to the upside and start another correction with the target at 1.1717. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is steadily growing towards 0. Today, the line is expected to break this level upside down and continue growing towards new highs.
As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the ascending structure at 1.1600 and the correction towards 1.1583, EUR/USD is growing to break 1.1608 and may later consolidate above the latter level.
After that, the instrument may break this range to the upside and continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 1.1632. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 50, a breakout of which may lead to further decline to reach 20.
Later, the line is expected to rebound from 20 and resume growing towards 80.
Disclaimer: Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
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