EUR/USD Posts Highest Weekly Close in Four Months
Alex Boltyan | Nov 11, 2022 03:14PM ET
The EUR/USD pair extended gains on Friday and reached fresh three-month highs as the U.S. dollar continued to underperform its main rivals.
The EUR/USD reached its highest intraday level since Aug. 10 at 1.0364 and is on track to post its highest daily close since July. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0360, up 1.5% on the day and posting an over 4% gain this week. The EUR/USD is also poised to record its fourth weekly gain in a row, staging a considerable bounce from below 0.9600.
Following October's nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index data, investors are now expecting the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of future rate increases. On Thursday, data showed U.S. consumer inflation finally started to cool down in October, printing an annual rate of 7.7%, below the 8% expected. The core rate also eased to 6.3% versus the 6.5% expected.
The shared currency managed to shrug off some gloomy economic projections from the European Commission. The Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast released on Friday pointed out that the E.U., the euro area, and most of its members are expected to tip into recession in the last quarter of the year amid elevated uncertainty, high energy price pressures, the erosion of households' purchasing power, a weaker external environment, and tighter financing conditions.
The European Commission expects inflation to peak by the year-end at 9.3% for the E.U. and 8.5% in the euro area before gradually easing to the long-run inflation target in 2024.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a short-term positive bias, with the price printing higher highs above the 20- and the 100-day SMA. However, the RSI is close to overbought territory, which could signal a phase of consolidation before another leg higher.
On the upside, the immediate resistance level is seen at the 200-day SMA at 1.0440, followed by the 1.0500 psychological level. On the other hand, the 1.0200 area is the first support in line, ahead of the 100-day SMA at around 1.0030.
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