EUR/USD: 60% Chance Of 12-Year Low
Al Brooks | Nov 25, 2015 10:16AM ET
The EUR/USD has been in a sell climax for a month, but it still is above the April higher low. The 240-minute chart had a wedge bottom over the past week. There is a 75% chance of a bull breakout. The bears got a bear breakout below the wedge bottom last night. When there is a bear breakout below a bottom, there is usually about a 50% chance that the breakout will lead to about a measured move down. Since the wedge was about 200 pips tall, a measured move down would project down to around 104, which would be below the March low and it would create a new 12-year low. The odds for the bears reaching the March low without a significant pullback are probably higher than 50% in this case because of the strong magnetic pull of the March low, which is now close to the current price.
There is also usually a 50% chance that the bear breakout will fail and reverse up. In this case, the probability of a significant pullback before testing the March low is less than 50%. The selloff last night was strong enough to have at least a 2nd leg down. The EUR/USD 5-minute chart had a small 2nd leg down about an hour ago. It is too early to know it that is enough. The bulls need a strong reversal up to convince traders that they have regained control. Without that, the odds favor at least a little more down. Because there is a 50% chance of a reversal up over the next few days, bulls will look for bottom formations and strong bull reversals. Bears will continue to swing their shorts and sell rallies, expecting a breakout below the March low.
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