Euro's Resilience And Price Trajectory
Naeem Aslam | Apr 14, 2021 05:18AM ET
Euro
The Euro continues to outperform its peers. If we look at the Euro against the dollar, we see that the currency has been winning all the major battles. Similarly, when we compare the strength of the Eurozone's currency against the Sterling, we hear an echo of the same message here as well.
It is immensely intriguing how the Euro has shown so much resilience even though the coronavirus vaccine's rollout process has been no short of any disaster in the EU. We have seen supply shortage, a significant amount of politics in deciding which brand of vaccine to use, and not to mention pausing of the coronavirus vaccine due to AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN)'s rare blood issues.
Today, traders will be looking at Christine Lagarde's speech, the European Central Bank's president. There have been some rumors in the markets that some minority members of the council have started to throw an idea of tapering of the bond purchase program.
However, there is still significant weakness in the economy as yesterday's ZEW data for Europe and for Germany—the biggest economy of the Eurozone-- failed to beat the forecast. Until or unless we see some tremendous strength here, the ECB is unlikely to even start thinking of thinking hawkish monetary policy stance.
In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD is highly likely to retest the resistance of 1.20. On the 30 minute time frame, the price has gone too far and too fast as the EUR/USD's price has crossed above the upper level of the Bollinger Band. Usually, this is a sign that we may see some retracement before the upward move resumes.
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