Euro Remains Negative; Cable Under Pressure
FinFX | Jul 28, 2014 04:10AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro remains negative and extends the third wave which commenced from 1.3699, 01 July lower top. The pair so far met its target at 1.3620, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, above which near-term price action stabilizes within narrow range. The second week closing in red, confirms negative structure and favors further downside. Immediate target lies at 1.34, round figure support, ahead of 1.3380, Fibonacci 161.8% expansion, with acceleration on a loss of the latter to open 1.3247, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of one year rally from 1.2042 to 1.3992. Oversold near-term studies, suggest consolidative / corrective action, with daily RSI also in the negative territory and MACD being extended, supporting the notion. Confirmation of stronger correction requires rally above 1.35, initial resistance zone and lower top at 1.3547.
Resistance: 1.3450; 1.3480; 1.3500; 1.3530
Support: 1.3420; 1.3400; 1.3380; 1.3350
EUR/JPY
The pair enters near-term consolidative phase, above 136.37, where larger bears found temporary footstep. Basing attempt was signaled, but still lacking confirmation, as initial rally’s probe above 137 handle, stalled under pivotal barrier at 137.32 lower top. Consolidative action is under way, with upside attempts expected to stay in play, once higher low formation at 136.32 is confirmed by fresh attempt above 137 barrier. Also break above 137.32 is required to confirm fresh bulls and possible stronger recovery. On the other side, still weak near-term studies, maintain downside pressure and would see increased downside risk in case the price returns to the key 136.21 higher low and pivotal support, loss of which would trigger fresh extension of pullback from 145.67, 27 Dec 2013 peak.
Resistance: 137.00; 137.32; 137.48; 137.81
Support: 136.37; 136.21; 136.00; 135.50
GBP/USD
Cable remains under pressure and continues to trend lower, after acceleration through psychological 1.7000 support posted marginally lower low at 1.6959, on consolidative attempt, on oversold near-term conditions. Initial barrier at psychological 1.7000 level, so far capped consolidative actions, maintaining overall negative tone. Penetration through 1.7000 is required to delay attempts below 1.6959 and 1.6934, mid-point of 1.6697/1.7189 rally / daily cloud top, for further retracement. Alternative scenario is expected to activate on a break above 1.7000 barrier and open resistance layers at 1.7030/60 and psychological 1.71000 level.
Get The News You Want
Resistance: 1.7000; 1.7025; 1.7050; 1.7093
Support: 1.6959; 1.6950; 1.6934; 1.6900
USD/JPY
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and came ticks away from psychological 102 barrier, after acceleration above near-term 101.30/60 consolidative phase, also broke 101.78/85 lower tops, also 20/200 and 55/200 death crosses. Sustained break above 102 barrier, reinforced by 200SMA, is required to confirm bullish resumption and expose next pivotal barrier at 102.25, 03 July lower top. Positive near-term studies support the notion, however, still weak daily conditions require caution while the price holds below 102 barrier.
Resistance: 102.00; 102.25; 102.35; 102.78
Support: 101.71; 101.60; 101.30; 101.05
AUD/USD
The pair’s near-term price action is at the back foot, after recovery attempt off 0.9334 higher low stalled at 0.9468, after failing to capitalize on a break above 0.9454, which was expected to open way for final attack at key 0.9503, 01 July low. Instead, downside acceleration, which probed below psychological 0.94 handle, retraced 61.8% of 0.9334/0.9468 upleg, weakening near-term structure and signaling prolonged 0.9503/0.9320 range trading. However, daily indicators at their midlines could increase downside risk and risk return to very strong 0.9320 base, loss of which is expected to accelerate lower and expose another strong support and higher base at 0.92 zone.
Resistance: 0.9400; 0.9422; 0.9447; 0.9468
Support: 0.9386; 0.9378; 0.9358; 0.9327
AUD/NZD
The pair remains supported and consolidates recent acceleration higher, which eventually cracked psychological 1.1000 barrier, on attempt at key 1.1030 barrier, 04 June peak. Positive near-term technicals remain supportive for final attempt through 1.1030, break of which to end multi-month congestion between 1.0488 and 1.1030 and retrigger fresh retracement of 1.1576/1.0488 downleg. To keep the structure intact, potential downside probes below 1.0959, current consolidation low, should be contained by psychological 1.09 support.
Resistance: 1.1012; 1.1030; 1.1050; 1.1100
Support: 1.0959; 1.0920; 1.0900; 1.0862
XAU/USD
Spot Gold trades in near-term corrective mode and probes above 1300 barrier, after last week’s fresh weakness posted new low at 1287, where 200SMA contained for now. Positive hourly structure is supportive for further recovery, which requires initially sustained break above 1300 handle and at the next step, regain of 1315/18 lower tops, to bring bulls back in play on 4-hour timeframe studies. This will confirm near-term bottom at 1287 and re-focus another key level at 1324, lower top of 18 July. Otherwise, moderate downside risk would be expected in case of failure to clearly break above 1300 barrier and reversal below.
Resistance: 1309; 1315; 1318; 1324
Support: 1300; 1292; 1286; 1280
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.