EUR/USD: Surprise Rebound

 | Apr 25, 2013 06:33AM ET

The break of the H&S neckline yesterday failed to to follow-through to the downside. Instead, the pair printed a strong bullish hammer on the hourly chart before beginning to rise. This led to a rally to above the trend-line connecting head and right-shoulder, indicating the H&S had failed. The pair has been correcting back down again today, and it will probably go lower. There is support at 1.3015 from the trend-line, and break of that and the 1.3010 lows would signal a probable continuation lower to the 1.2960 range lows. Alternatively, a recovery and extension higher is also possible, with a decisive break above 1.3060 highs signalling a move up to the 1.3130 highs.