EUR/USD: Down-Trend In Play Ahead Of ECB Meeting

 | Mar 05, 2015 05:23AM ET


The EUR/USD pair has fallen below the Jan 26 lows at 1.1097 and also cleared the S1 monthly pivot not far beneath at 1.1065.


The next bearish target is at 1.0941, where the S2 monthly pivot rests. Today sees the ECB rate meeting, which is likely to cause some volatility - possibly lower.


Traders have already been selling the euro in preparation for the announcement as the central bank is scheduled to unveil details of its massive stimulus programme.


There is a small possibility the details may not be as bearish as previously thought, however, given slightly more upbeat economic data recently, including a bounce in January Retail Sales to 1.1% when only a 0.2% increase had been expected.


From a purely technical point of view, however, the dominant down-trend is likely to continue lower, until evidence to the contrary signals a reversal. For traders who missed getting on at 1.1045, another possible point to join the down-trend could be just below today's lows at 1.1025, with an eventual target situated at S2 at 1.0941, however, a less risky play might be 10 points lower given the possibility of whipsawing volatility during the meeting.