EUR/USD Risks Monthly Lows On EU CPI
Dailyfx | Nov 28, 2014 01:24AM ET
- Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slip Back to 0.3%- Lowest Since October 2009
- Core Rate of Inflation to Grow Annualized 0.7% for Second Consecutive Month
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short EUR/USD trade
- If market reaction favors selling Euro, short EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bearish Euro trade, just in opposite direction
- Will continue to look for lower highs & lows as the downward trending channel remains in play.
- Interim Resistance: 1.2610 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2620 (50% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)
Trading the News: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A further slowdown in the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more non-standard measures.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
There’s growing bets that the Governing Council may have little choice but to implement quantitative easing across the monetary union amid the growing threat for deflation, and the single currency remains at risk of facing additional headwinds in 2015 as the economic recovery remains subdued.
Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario
|
Release |
Expected/ |
Actual |
|
Consumer Confidence (NOV A) |
-10.7 |
-11.6 |
|
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (NOV P) |
52.3 |
51.4 |
|
Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) |
-0.8% |
-1.3% |
Waning confidence paired with the renewed weakness in private sector consumption may drag on price growth, and the growing risk for deflation may push the ECB to adopt more emergency measures in an effort to achieve its one and only mandate to deliver price stability.
Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario
|
Release |
Expected |
/Actual |
|
Trade Balance s.a. (SEP) |
16.0B |
17.7B |
|
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (3Q A) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (SEP) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
However, the CPI report may show sticky price growth in Europe as the region returns the growth, and a stronger-than-expected inflation print may trigger a more meaningful correction in EUR/USD as it mitigates the risk for deflation.
Get The News You Want
How To Trade This Event Risk (Video )
Bearish EUR Trade: Euro-Zone CPI Slips to 0.3% or Lower
Bullish EUR Trade: Headline Reading for Inflation Tops Market Forecast
Potential Price Targets For The Release
Impact that the Euro-Zone CPI report has had on EUR during the last release
|
Period |
Data Released |
Estimate |
Actual |
Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) |
Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
|
OCT 2014 |
10/31/2014 10:00 GMT |
0.4% |
0.4% |
+ 14 |
- 41 |
The Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose an annualized 0.4% after expanding 0.3% in September, while the core rate of inflation unexpectedly slipped to 0.7% from 0.8% during the same period. Despite the rebound from a 5-year low, the weakening outlook for inflation may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement additional monetary support as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. Despite the initial tick higher in EUR/USD, the single currency struggled to hold its ground during the North America trade as the pair ended the day at 1.2521.
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