EUR/USD: Will The Euro Rise Again?
Munther Marji | Sep 15, 2014 03:49AM ET
Today's Technical Report/Commentary:
After reaching a 14-month low on the 9th of the month, the Euro’s recovery attempts has been shallow, and managed only to restore a very small amount of the recent losses. A look at the hourly chart suggests that this will continue to be the case unless the price breaks above 1.2986.
This is the resistance that we need to care about for today. A break above this level will give the Euro a chance to rise again, targeting 1.3008 & 1.3043. These levels, although micro term retracements, are important, because they are what separates the Euro from a short term correction. Overcoming these levels will open the way higher towards the short term retracements, which start at 1.3069, include 1.3134 as an ideal target ahead of the key 1.3199.
On the support side, first we have the rising trend line from the 14-month low, which is currently running at 1.2927. A break below this level will probably mean another 14-month low, as the targets for this break will be 1.2882, followed by the 14-mont low 1.2858, ahead of the important support area 1.2804/10. A break below this level would hurt the outlook even more, but the real damage will be the result of breaking the important long term Fibonacci level at 1.2786. If we approach this level anytime this week, we should give it all of our attention because breaking or rebounding from this level is expected to result in a sizable move.
Attached Chart(s):
Support:
• 1.2927: the rising trend line from September 9th 14-month low.
• 1.2882: September 10th daily low, a minor level.
• 1.2858: September 9th 14-month low, a more important one.
• 1.2804/10: a small support area combined of the daily lows for July 4th & 7th 2013.
• 1.2786: the long term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the whole gigantic move from 2012 yearly low 1.2041 to 2014 yearly high 1.3991. This is a key level for the long term.
• 1.2753: July 8h 2013 daily low, and major bottom.
• 1.2716: Nov 7th daily low.
• 1.2689: Nov 8th daily low.
Resistance:
• 1.2986: September 5th daily high, and the highest price seen in the past 10 days.
• 1.3008: micro term Fibonacci 50% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 9th 14-month low 1.2858.
• 1.3043: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 9th 14-month low 1.2858. This is probably the most important resistance for now.
• 1.3069: short term Fibonacci 38.2% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 9th 14-month low 1.2858.
• 1.3134: short term Fibonacci 50% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 9th 14-month low 1.2858.
• 1.3173: short term Marji 57.1% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 9th 14-month low 1.2858.
• 1.3199: short term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 9th 14-month low 1.2858.
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Trend:
• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.2986.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3458.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.4109.
Article originally appeared on MarjiFX.com
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