EUR Remains Bearish Overall; Cable Maintains Negative Tone
FinFX | Oct 02, 2014 04:04AM ET
EUR/USD
The Euro remains bearish overall, with near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.2569 under way. The pair failed for the second day to close below psychological 1.26 level, which, along with yesterday’s Doji candle, signals further hesitation. Strong resistance levels at 1.2700/10, also near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2900/1.2569 downleg, offer initial barrier, ahead of 1.2735, 50% retracement / 4-hour 55SMA and lower top / Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2659/73. Lift and daily close above 1.2700/10, reinforced by daily 10SMA, to signal near-term basing attempt and further attempts higher, with clearance of 1.2773, Fibonacci barrier, required to confirm correction. However, bears remain favored, as larger picture technicals are negatively aligned and see room for further easing, despite overextended conditions of daily and weekly chart studies. Immediate target lies at 1.25, psychological support / Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend, with the third wave off 1.3699 lower top, capable of travelling to 1.2360, its 261.8% Fibonacci expansion.
Res: 1.2710; 1.2735; 1.2760; 1.2810
Sup: 1.2618; 1.2600; 1.2582; 1.2569
EUR/JPY
The pair remains stable under 138 barrier, with yesterday’s long red candle and close below 138 psychological support and daily 100SMA, confirming strong bearish stance. The price penetrated daily Ichimoku cloud top and heads towards 137 support, cloud base and Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 135.80/141.20 ascend. Full retracement of the latter upleg is on near-term agenda, as daily indicators are in descend, with bearish momentum building-up. Extension below key short-term base at 135.80/71, could trigger more significant easing, as extension of larger descend from 145.67, Dec 2013 peak.
Res: 137.70; 138.00; 138.21; 138.53
Sup: 137.28; 138.00; 136.20; 135.80
GBP/USD
Cable maintains negative tone and sees further easing favored, with near-term focus at psychological 1.6000 support, also 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Downleg from 1.6522, 19 Sep high, met its target at 1.6159, 16 Sep higher low, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.6050/1.6522, coming ticks away from key 1.6050, 10 Sep low, the last obstacle on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective rallies were so far capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which is expected to keep the upside protected. Only break above the latter would delay bears and signal stronger corrective action.
Res: 1.6250; 1.6285; 1.6300; 1.6339
Sup: 1.6170; 1.6159; 1.6100; 1.6050
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USD/JPY
The pair entered near-term corrective phase after cracking psychological 100 barrier and initial target. Extension below 109 support, signals further easing, as the pair approaches the next breakpoint and higher base at 108/45/25 zone. Yesterday’s Outside Day candle, could be a signal of stronger correction, which requires break below 108.25, to be confirmed. Indicators on 4-hour chart are breaking into negative territory and support negative near-term outlook, as daily indicators started to point lower and RSI came out of overbought territory. Oversold hourly studies, however, see corrective rally in the near-term, with initial barrier at 109.10, session high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 110.07/108.54 downleg / previous low of 29 Sep, followed by 109.30, 50% retracement / hourly 55SMA and 109.49, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 110.07/108.54.
Res: 109.12; 109.30; 109.49; 109.71
Sup: 108.54; 108.46; 108.25; 108.00
AUD/USD
The pair bounces after completing 0.8658/ 0.9503 rally, with gains cracking psychological 0.88 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8660 downleg. Daily 10SMA and 4-hour 55SMA, so far limited rally, with sustained break above 0.8800/20 zone, required to spark stronger bounce and open next significant targets at 0.8900/25. Daily indicators are reversing from oversold territory and support further recovery. Alternatively, renewed downside risk would be expected on confirmation of lower top at 0.8814, session high.
Res: 0.8814; 0.8830; 0.8886; 0.8925
Sup: 0.8780; 0.8757; 0.8721; 0.8700
AUD/NZD
The pair trades in near-term consolidative phase after strong rally off 1.0914 low stalled on approach to near-term target and breakpoint at 1.1293, 05 Sep peak. Corrective easing probed below 38.2% of 1.0914/1.1279 rally, but holds for now above 1.11, psychological support and 50% of 1.0914/1.1279 rally, which should ideally contain dips, to keep near-term bulls intact for fresh attempt towards 1.1293, break of which to signal resumption of larger rally from 1.0488, Jan 2014 low. Otherwise, extension and close below 1.11 handle, would sideline near-term bulls and signal deeper pullback.
Res: 1.1200; 1.1243; 1.1279; 1.1293
Sup: 1.1117; 1.1100; 1.1061; 1.1000
XAU/USD
Spot Gold holds above dangerous zone, as the price bounced above 1220, after fresh weakness b below 1208/06 failed to re-visit psychological 1200 level. Prolonged consolidative phase, looks like favored near-term scenario, with overall picture being negative and keeping risk of return to 1200 support and potential break lower, in play. Hourly studies are positive, but lack of strength on 4-hour studies, keeps recent peaks and breakpoints at 1231/35, intact for now. Sustained break above the latter, is required to confirm reversal.
Res: 1222; 1231; 1235; 1240
Sup: 1212; 1208; 1204; 1200
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