Saxo Bank | Apr 29, 2013 01:27AM ET
The European Commission is updating its Economic Sentiment Index today, followed by the March report on personal income and spending in the U.S. Later, the U.S. Dallas Fed releases the latest review of manufacturing activity in the bank’s region, offering another clue for anticipating Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing report.
EU Economic Sentiment (09:00 GMT): Today’s update on the mood across the eurozone will shape expectations for the week ahead, including Thursday's monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank. Today's report follows in the wake of last week’s unexpected decline in Germany’s private sector output, based on the April PMI data (pdf). Given that wobbly backdrop, no one will be surprised if the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) - a composite of business and consumer sentiment surveys - beats a hasty retreat in this month’s estimate. ESI’s March release hinted at weakness, with this sentiment index slipping modestly, the first decrease since last October.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone continued to rise in last week’s April estimate, according to the European Commission. Is that a sign that broad economic sentiment can hold up in today’s ESI report? It’s a bit odd to see the mood among consumers improving amid renewed worries that Europe’s recession may threaten Germany’s modest expansion after all. Is that a pressing risk? Today’s ESI release may provide some context for coming up with an answer.
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