Saxo Bank | Apr 05, 2013 06:18AM ET
The central bank-heavy week gets a break from policymakers with some real numbers for a change. In addition to the selected three items, Germany’s factory orders are worth mentioning.
Eurozone February Retail Sales (09:00 GMT): The expectation is for a drop of 0.2 percent after January’s surprisingly large 1.2 percent gain. In the final analysis, Europe has two choices: closer union or eventual breakup. Closer union requires political support at the national level but the electorate is becoming increasingly weary in many countries. This applies not just in austerity-ridden countries with mass unemployment, but also in creditor countries, where every quarter seems to come with a new bailout. Which is why it makes sense to keep a close eye on consumer behavior as a proxy for political support.
US March Employment Report (12:30 GMT): The consensus sees a solid addition of 200,000 non-farm jobs after a surprisingly high February reading of plus 236,000. Latest whisper/blogger numbers are somewhat lower, around 180-190,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.7 percent. The macro data has been slightly disappointing lately and the payroll number could give the markets a negative surprise. Possible revisions to earlier months are very important to watch out for as markets are quick with arithmetic and a couple of revisions higher or lower can easily change the meaning of the current headline number.
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