ETH/BTC Technicals Eye Reversal
LiteForex | Sep 13, 2018 11:55AM ET
ETH/BTC analysis and the updated middle-term forecast for Ethereum. ETH key levels and Ethereum general outlook.In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, oscillators, key levels, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, Renko chart, Kagi chart, Line Breakout chart, Tic-Tac-Toe chart.
Dear friends,I go on my cryptocurrency price predictions and today I’d like to dwell upon Ethereum and analyze the ETH/BTC trend.
First, let’s see how accurately the ETH/BTC price matched to my last forecast.
As you see from the chart above, Ethereum price matched to the forecast rather accurately. Ethereum has even been ahead the plan, reaching the target earlier than expected.
To find out, what the most popular altcoin is promising in future, let’s analyze the fundamental factors for Ethereum and carry out ETH/BTC technical analysis.ETH/BTC fundamental analysis
In my last forecast I wrote about the major reason for Ethereum weakness, as the most popular altcoin; which is the capital outflow into Bitcoin. Bitcoin serves as the main transit means for withdrawing funds from cryptocurrency. Its growing dominance, amid its sideways trend, means that the tendency of money withdrawing is not getting weaker; it is rather growing stronger. Two weeks ago, I presented some date on the Bitcoin dominance; it was at the level of 59.90% (see the chart below).
Now, Bitcoin market cap dominance has reached 57% and goes on increasing (see the chart below).
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The first resistance level will be 65%. But, in case the rise continues, Bitcoin share can well reach 85%, and so, all the rest of cryptocurrencies may draw down by 30% more, the least.
On the other hand, gradual shift to the POS-consensus, followed by the introduction of the updated version, Constantinople, will support the Ethereum price rise, as the ETH holders will receive the reward.
The conditions of the Ethereum storage reward are not yet announced to the wide audience; but, as soon as the information is released, the ETH price may hit its all-times high quite fast. Everything depends on how easily individual investors will be able to receive the reward.
Anyway, the opportunity to make profits from storing Ethereum on the wallet will encourage long-term investment; and the reduction of the reward down to 2 ETH, from 3 ETH, will only boost the Ethereum deficit in the market.ETH/BTC technical analysis
In the ETH/BTC monthly chart above, it is clear that the last candlestick closed below Keltner channel’s bottom border; however, the token price hasn’t reached the December’s low, so there is still some room to go down.
You see in the ETH/BTC weekly timeframe above that there is a strong bearish trend, sliding down rather deep far from the channel borders. At the same time, the oscillators are far in the oversold zone, but they don’t suggest any increase in future.
In the ETH/BTC daily chart above, you see a steady movement in the trend. However, there are some signs that the fall is likely to stop, at least for some time. First, the MACD indicator paints a rounding of its moving averages. The same is suggested by RSI stochastic, which has already drawn a bullish cross in the oversold zone.
It is clear that the ticker touches the borders of Keltner channel in the monthly timeframe. This level is definitely the strong support zone in the daily timeframe. Therefore, taking into account all the above, I can suggest, at the lower end, the sideways trend, developing towards the channel top borders.
I addition, I must note the increasing trade volume.
In ETH/BTC 15-minute chart above, there is a clear support form big buyers, who, in three large purchases, have almost reversed the local trend (I marked with three big circles in the market).
As a part of my big experiment with unusual charts, let’s have a look at the Tic-Tac-Toe chart.
In general, the 4-hour chart suggests oppositely-directed movement in the Japanese candlestick chart (left part). The moving averages in the chart itself are directed downwards, indicating the bearish trend. MACD moving averages indicate the bullish convergence and paint a bullish cross, meeting each other in the overbought zone.
On the right, the Tic-Tac-Toe chart indicates the bearish trend in general. However, there is some indirect evidence of a bullish correction in the bearish trend. In the chart above, I deliberately marked short corrections in the downtrend. Because of the chart structure, it is easy to figure out the length of each retracement. It is clear that one bearish wave is not longer than 30 Os; the last wave consist of 24 units, and so, taking into account the strong support levels and the global trend’s length, the Ethereum price is to be corrected soon.
Another indirect evidence is the bullish convergence of MACD graph-bar in the Tic-Tac-Toe chart. There hasn’t been its rounding yet, but it is already clear that the low in the indicator won’t be broke through, and so the convergence will surely be complete.To sum up ETH/BTC analysis:
According to the all-round market view above, the Ethereum reached the level, where large buyers show their support.
The most likely ETH/BTC trading scenario suggests that the ETH price should be corrected up to the top border of the bearish channel. As it is rather strong resistance level, the ticker is likely to roll back, down to the support level; but the buyers’ interest will finally support the price and, in late September, just ahead the Ethereum network is updated, there will be a double bottom pattern, followed by the ETH trend reversal. Whether it is by chance or not, but the Fibonacci arc is very close to the suggested reversal date; it only increases my confidence in the soon trend reversal.
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