Are U.S. Major Indices About To Go Parabolic?
Candy Matheson | Feb 16, 2017 12:07AM ET
From the following 1-Year Daily chart of the U.S. Major Indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Utility, Dow Jones Transportation, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, S&P 100 and NASDAQ Transportation—and the graph depicting percentages gained/lost since November 8, 2016 (election day), you can see the huge gains that they've made since the election, except the Utilities Index. In spite of the relative flatness of Utilities since then, all of them remain above their 50-day moving average.
The following 5-Year Daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that, while the SPX made an all-time new high yesterday (February 15th), this chart failed to confirm the latest price spike. The RSI has fallen below the 50 level, and the MACD and PMO indicators have formed bearish crossovers...potentially signalling, either an imminent pause in equity buying, or some profit-taking in the near term.
Bottom line: The above-mentioned indices look like they're about to go parabolic in a continued price spike. If they do, I'd keep an eye on the SPX:VIX ratio to see whether we get a higher price confirmation, together with a new "BUY" signal on the technical indicators (e.g., a higher RSI swing high, and bullish crossovers on the MACD and PMO). If we do, it's important that these three indicators remain in such a "BUY" mode on any near-term pause or pullback on the SPX as a gauge of subsequent market strength. Otherwise, we may see some larger profit-taking occur over the medium term.
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