Effect Of The Fog Of War Returns
Tim Knight | Mar 30, 2022 04:00PM ET
Evidently, Russia’s olive branch extended yesterday (green arrow) was saturated with kerosene and set ablaze (red arrow), so we’re still all mired in the fog of war. Ridiculous.
So we seem to be back into “Ukraine Market Lite,“ the equities sell off (modestly) and safe havens are bid (modestly). Crude oil isn’t taking out its early March highs, but it sure is healing from its sell-off. I’ve put green circles to mark the steady drumbeat of higher lowers.
It’s nice to see some red for a change, though. The last two weeks have been absolutely dreadful. A bear’s nightmare. As I’m typing this, indexes have sold off about half a percent (which is an annoyingly tiny amount for a situation in which an enemy lied to you about starts mercilessly shelling again).
I must say, as a fan of gold, I’m concerned about how it is shaping up. That is a disturbing pattern below, and it’s going to become a battle of the bears (head-and-shoulders pattern) versus the bulls (the much larger bullish base. I would say that so long as we stay above 1880, we should be all right.
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I made a solemn vow yesterday that we would start the day red, only because I had lightened up my own positions (you’re welcome). I am down to a mere 25 bearish positions with 22% in cash. It’s actually kinda sad.
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