Econintersect LLC | Jul 29, 2012 12:26AM ET
This is the time of the month that Econintersect begins to prepare their economic forecast for August 2012. Sitting here working on the forecast and listening to CNBC in the background – the images in my head are one of an economic roller coaster with an abyss in the distance.
This past week saw many economic ups and downs:
The USA economy is running so close to zero that the question on everyone’s mind is not if, but when, the next recession will start. This creates a mindset (at least for me), to look extra hard for recessionary evidence in the coincident data. Every piece of bad data gets magnified, while good news is shrunk out of proportion.
I have no special crystal ball to share about the timing of any upcoming recession. All I can say is the data we have seen for June (which is subject to revision) shows an expanding economy. Going with the big four economic elements the NBER considers other than GDP – the latest data was improving.
Month-over-Month Growth Personal Income less transfer payments (blue line), Employment (red line), Industrial Production (green line), Business Sales (orange line).
I keep getting a flashback to Econ 101, and business and economic cycles. I keep wondering how another recession could be upon us without a typical expansion cycle – where was the boom part of the cycle? Was I asleep? The Great Recession it seems was artificially terminated by extra-ordinary fiscal and monetary moves, and the extra-ordinary measures may be expiring before its excesses cleared.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.