Earnings Trade Replaces Trump Bump: 5 Top Gainers

 | May 10, 2017 10:08PM ET

U.S. stocks are hovering near fresh highs, with Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) market value breaking the $800 billion mark for the first time, as earnings trade replaces Trump trade. The best earnings growth pace in five years has propelled Wall Street to new heights, even though, investors question President Trump’s ability to build harmony in Washington to implement business-friendly policies. Investors are concerned that FBI Director James Comey’s abrupt dismissal could delay key items in the administration’s agenda including corporate tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure policies.

Earnings growth has been driven by Industrial Products, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Basic Materials and Finance, with all of them on track to achieve double-digit gains in the first quarter. Henceforth, investing in fundamentally solid stocks from the said sectors that had crushed earnings estimates will be prudent. Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France’s presidential election has, in the meantime, stabilized the geo-political scenario, which should also bode well for such stocks. After all, market’s “fear gauge” is almost at a decade low.

Earnings Growth Drives Wall Street

Most equity strategists agree that the top catalyst for the market now is earnings. Total earnings for Q1 are anticipated to be up 12.7% from the same period last year on 6.2% higher revenues. As the reporting cycle has proceeded, the Q1 growth pace is on track to be the highest in five years. This will follow 7.3% growth achieved in the fourth quarter of 2016 on 4.7% higher revenues. This further shows that Q1 results represent acceleration in earnings growth.

So far in Q1, 446 S&P 500 index members have already reported results. Total earnings for these companies are up 14% from the same period last year on 7.9% higher revenues, with 72.4% beating EPS estimates and 66.4% coming ahead of top-line expectations. The growth pace for both earnings as well as revenues are tracking above other recent periods, while the proportion of companies beating estimates, mostly revenue estimates, is also higher than other recent periods. The table below shows the current Q1 earnings scorecard for the top five sectors:

SectorsEarnings Growth (YOY)Earnings BeatRevenue Growth(YOY)Revenue Beat
Industrial Products24.1%76.2%9.7%81%
Technology17.2%78.3%6.8%80.4%
Consumer Discretionary16%76.7%14.5%50%
Basic Materials15.9%60%5.4%75%
Finance10.4%72.3%5.2%68.1%

Source: The table is taken from this week’s Zacks Investment Research

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