E-Mini S&P 500: Another Triangle, Another Breakout?
Trader Moe | Nov 12, 2014 12:32AM ET
ES worked on a triangle all day (gray on chart). It could break out in either direction. On a breakout upwards, you’d stay long. You could short a breakout downwards if you’re skilled at playing short-term moves.
If it breaks out downwards, it will likely be putting in a small wave down within a larger megaphone formation.
Triangles usually redraw themselves after they look complete, so you have to be a little slow about betting if the breakout is downwards.
If the triangle does break out downwards, the minimum dip is to roughly ES 2028. If the price breaks out through 2028, the next target is ES 2011. From 2011 the price would usually retrace to 2028 for the critical decision on the next move. It could blast through 2028 to run quickly to a new all-time high.
ES has been crawling up along the bottom of the bright blue megaphone top since October 23. When a price crawls along the top of a megaphone instead of breaking out, it’s got high odds of retracing to the megaphone VWAP to decide on longer-term direction.
That means ES will almost certainly dip to 1937.50 sooner or later, but it doesn’t have to be right now.
Most likely ES is starting on another of its trademark topping moves at its 6-month megaphone top (red on chart above). If the move up from the October 15 low turns once again on precise touches at this megaphone top, the dip to 1937.50 will be a dip to buy for a big move up.
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