U.S. Dollar Jumps As Draghi Releases The Doves And Not The Hounds

 | Mar 07, 2019 11:48PM ET

Equities sagged and the U.S. dollar surged overnight as the European Central Bank (ECB) spooked global markets by releasing the monetary doves instead of the hounds. European and North American Indices all ended up in the red, on currencies the U.S. Dollar Index hit its highest level since June 2017 while bond yields in Europe and the U.S. all fell again.

The ECB left rates unchanged at 0% but was surprisingly downbeat, slashing Eurozone growth forecasts from 1.70% to 1.10%, lowering inflation forecasts with ECB President Draghi bemoaning “pervasive uncertainty” in the global economy. The ECB launched a new round of cheap bank financing and said it would fully reinvest its maturing bond holdings.

With the Euro-zone likely the next target for President Trump’s trade-talk embrace, a slowing economy, a central bank very low on monetary bullets, an inability by members to mount a joint fiscal response and an impending Brexit by the U.K, it is no surprise that the euro (EUR) fell out of bed. The single currency fell 1% from 1,1305 to 1.1195, a 20-month low.

The sombre mood flowed into North America with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling 0.8% and the Nasdaq 1.1%.

Asia is unlikely to escape Europe’s hangover either following a dismal day on North Asian stock markets yesterday. Local markets will anxiously await China’s trade balance at 1100 am Singapore (USD26.4 exp), followed by German Factory orders (+0.50% exp) before the week’s highlight, the U.S. non-farm payrolls. After last month’s monster 300,000 gain, expectations are more tempered today with the street forecasting 180,000 jobs added. Watch for extensive revisions of the previous months print, with a substantial downward revision potentially piercing fragile sentiment below the water line.

FX

The U.S. dollar reigned supreme overnight as haven flows poured into the greenback and onto U.S. treasuries. The EUR dipped below 1.1200 with the pound (GBP) falling 0.7% to 1.3085.

The Australian dollar (AUD), New Zealand dollar (NZD) and Japanese yen (JPY) all trod water overnight as the news stayed European centric. The China trade data should provide some volatility for all three with sellers emerging on a low print.

The same scenario is likely for regional currencies, with traders likely to reduce holdings on a lower print. Local currencies, in particular, are vulnerable to safe-haven outflows ahead of the weekend.