Diving Into The Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K
Mike (Mish) Shedlock | Mar 08, 2015 04:19AM ET
Initial Reaction
Once again we see the pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey. The latter varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?
Here is one stat that really stands out: The unemployment rate for teenagers 16-19 fell 1.7 percentage points. BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Nonfarm Payroll: +295,000 - Establishment Survey
- Employment: +96,000 - Household Survey
- Unemployment: -274,000 - Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: -175,000 - Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: +15,000 - Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 5.5% - Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 11.0% - Household Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +176,000
- Civilian Labor Force: -178,000 - Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: +354,000 - Household Survey
- Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.8 - Household Survey
January 2015 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.
The official unemployment rate is 5.5%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 11.0%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.
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