Despite The Summit Agreement Germany Still Holds The Key

 | Jul 01, 2012 06:53AM ET

Despite the summit agreement, it will be a while before the ESM is authorized to buy Italian bonds. Germany still holds the key.

 
On Friday Angela Merkel got the Bundestag approval she was seeking. Germany approved the Fiscal Compact and the ESM. Germany views the Fiscal Compact as a way to enforce austerity in the periphery countries.
 
Reuters : - There is a chance it could link approval to a change in the constitution - which would require Germany's first national referendum in the post-war era. At the very least, experts say, the court could say approval for any future integration, beyond the ESM and fiscal compact, would require constitutional change.
 
Thus in spite of Mario Monti's apparent "victory" at the summit, there will be a great number of hoops to jump through before the ESM is actually ready to buy Italian bonds. Some of the risk asset rally we've had on Friday may therefore be reversed once market participants fully absorb this reality.

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