Despite Rebound, Risk-Off Sentiment Continues to Dominate Global Markets
James Picerno | Nov 18, 2022 09:31AM ET
Although there have been hints that the worst of the selling has passed, there’s still plenty of room for skepticism, based on trends for key markets via a set of ETF pairs for prices through Thursday’s close (Nov. 17).
Let’s start with the ratio of an aggressive asset allocation strategy (AOA) to conservative (AOK). Although the trend for this proxy has popped lately, the downside bias remains intact, based on 50- and 200-day moving averages and so it’s premature to assume that the bear market has been exhausted.
The downside bias for medium-term Treasuries, via iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (NYSE:IEF), relative to short-term Treasuries, iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:SHY), certainly hasn’t changed, which suggests that the appetite for safety remains strong.
Risk-on for the inflation/reflation trade continues to hold its ground, based on the ratio for inflation-indexed Treasuries, via iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP), vs. their standard counterparts (IEF), but the trend is looking tired and is vulnerable if the economy continues to weaken.
Estimating the risk appetite for US equities, via SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), relative to a portfolio of low-volatility shares, via iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (NYSE:USMV), continues to signal risk-off.
A proxy for economic activity – semiconductor stocks, via VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH), vs. equities overall (SPY) – has enjoyed a relief rally lately, but it’s too early to say that the bearish trend for this proxy has ended.
Get The News You Want
Despite the bearish bias for stocks generally, the appetite for US equities, via Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSE:VTI), over foreign stocks, via Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSE:VEU), persists.
Finally, relative strength for value stocks, via iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (NYSE:IWD), vs. growth stocks, via iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (NYSE:IWF), continues to run. The logic is the widely held view that value shares tend to outperform when interest rates are rising. On that basis, expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates in the near term imply that value will continue to outperform.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.