Tiho Brkan | Dec 07, 2014 11:59PM ET
h3 Chart 3: Chinese equities and OECD LEI showing a possible improvement/h3Global manufacturing production expanded at the slowest pace for 15 months in November, as growth of new orders hit a 16-month low and the trend in international trade volumes stagnated. The forward- looking orders-to-inventory ratio also edged down to its weakest level since the end of 2012. At a 14-month low of 51.8 in November, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI nonetheless signalled a further expansion of the sector.
North America was a key growth engine. Canada was in joint-third place of the Output PMI growth rankings, a position it shared with the Netherlands, while Mexico and the US were in fifth and sixth places respectively. This was despite the US seeing a sharp growth slowdown. The UK and Japan also reported solid expansions.
Apart from the slower US expansion, the weakness in the global manufacturing sector also mainly reflected stagnation in China and further subdued growth in the eurozone. The lacklustre performance of the euro area came despite it having three of the top-ranked nations (Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands), whose solid expansions were offset by weaker growth in Germany and contractions in Austria, France and Italy. Elsewhere, Brazil, Indonesia and South Korea also reported lower output.
h3 Chart 4: US leading economic indicators are giving us a mixed picture/h3Composite leading indicators point to continued weak growth in Europe but stable growth in most other major economies and in the OECD as a whole. Amongst major economies stable growth momentum is anticipated for Canada, the United States, Brazil, China and Russia. The CLI points to growth losing traction in Japan though this may be related to one-off factors.
Within the Euro Area, the CLI continues to point to a loss of growth momentum, with stronger signals of a slowdown in the case of Germany and Italy. In France however the outlook continues to suggest stable growth momentum. The CLI for the United Kingdom indicates that growth may ease, albeit from relatively high levels. India is the only major economy where the CLI points to a pick-up in growth momentum.
Today we focus on a lagging economic indicator in the form of US credit growth. I want to make it crystal clear that indicators like this shouldn’t be used on their own for investment purposes and timing of markets. We have to remember that markets are a discount mechanism and anticipate the future by at least 6 months (if not more), so looking at lagging economic data is like driving a car by looking at only the rear view mirror. For example, this is why 60 out of 67 economists who predicted rising rates in 2014 were complete wrong. All year long, interest rates just fell lower and lower… and lower. Their models and lagging data failed to anticipate any of that.
h3 Chart 9: United States annual credit growth remains robust for now… /h3Nevertheless, looking at such data from time to time can be useful, because we can see longer term underlying trends. After a huge credit contraction in 2008, the worst since the The Great Depression, at present we notice a decently robust annual credit growth. In particular, US consumer revolving credit (red line in Chart 9) is showing that credit cards, bank overdrafts and line of credit accounts are being used more. In other words, debt is being run up to higher levels. While this development might not be healthy in the long run, it boosts demand at present and therefore will most likely increase company earnings. Having said that, the two most important questions you should be asking yourself are: 1) how much of this is already discounted by evaluated US equity markets; and 2) will this credit growth trend continue into 2015?
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