Debunking The 100% Recession Chart
Jeff Miller | Nov 08, 2012 12:08AM ET
Note to readers -- It was either this topic or the fiscal cliff. Since I have explained for many weeks that we will not be doing any cliff diving, I am choosing to take up the recession chart. So much misleading commentary, and so little time!
This chart is making the rounds, confirmation bias for those who are convinced that below-trend growth equals a recession.
There are several leading sources pointing to the chart and suggesting that it implies a 100% chance of a recession. There are so many things wrong with this that I hardly no where to begin. Here is the commentary from non-economist talk-show guy Lance Roberts:
"As stated above, each time this indicator has signaled the probability of a recession at 20%, or higher, the economy has either been in, or was about to be in, a recession. However, while the indicator is currently at a level that is indicative of a recession, along with a host of other economic indicators confirming the same (LEI Coincident to Lagging Ratio, ADS, GDI, Final Sales, STA Economic Composite, etc.), the NBER will wait to date the recession until the data revisions are in. Historically, as shown in the table below, the amount of time between the recession probability indicator hitting 20% and the NBER confirming the start of the recession has been on average about eight months. However, since the turn of the century that lag has moved to roughly 11.5 months."
Try this. Suppose that your favorite football team has not lost a game in the last three years in which it has scored 24 points or more. Then they lose 27-24. You simply revise the proposition to say that they have never lost when scoring 27 or more points. This is what many amateurs do in interpreting data like the chart above.
Look at the chart above and pretend that we were going back to the future in 2005. You could have drawn the line at 15% and said everything that Lance says now. You would have been completely wrong!
This "never before" style commentary keeps coming up. It has no solid basis in research methods, but it seems convincing to anyone who has not studied research methods.
A Novel Idea -- Read the Research! D'oh
Here is a novel idea for the economic bloggers -- count to 10! Maybe you should actually Prof. Chauvet's site . Sure enough, the data from last year shows a spike which apparently was later revised away if you believe Prof Piger's site.
Note the serious discrepancy with Piger.
Get The News You Want
Here is the supporting data:
Dwaine tells me that this is common with Markov models and revisions. I hope that he will write on this topic, and that he will gain the wide visibility he deserves.
Investment Conclusion
Today's market was a combination of the following:
- Investors confusing their politics with their investing;
- Excessive fear about the fiscal cliff;
- Excessive fear about Europe; and
- Those mesmerized by "the chart" discussed here.
When there is excessive fear, it is an opportunity for long-term investors. If you disagree with the recession forecast, the key choices are cyclical companies and technology -- all on sale via your favorite broker. Regular readers know that I like CAT, AAPL, and ORCL, and I am buying them all.
I'll try to cover the fiscal cliff issues soon, but you already know my conclusion.
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