Daily Shot: Learning From Switzerland?
Sober Look | Jun 10, 2015 06:39AM ET
We start with the latest data on US labor markets:
1. Job openings rose to new multi-year highs.
2. In particular, we see a spike in healthcare job openings while layoffs in Mining and Logging, which includes Oil & Gas, remain elevated.
3. The NFIB small business survey shows US businesses increasingly struggling to find "quality labor" as the labor force skills gap becomes acute. In other US economic reports, we have small business earnings (based on the NFIB survey) rising sharply last month.
And for those who say small businesses have limited access to credit: Their credit availability is at pre-recession levels. Moreover, new business formations are also at pre-recession highs and business loan delinquencies have collapsed.
Given what the Fed has been saying recently, the latest data from the US seems consistent with a rate hike in September - which is currently the consensus.
Before hiking rates however, I do hope the Fed takes a look at Switzerland where the currency strength has produced the worst YoY CPI decline since the 1960s. Such risks are of course much lower in the US, but this is worth considering.
Now to the Eurozone, which continues to show strong economic progress with the GDP growing each quarter over the past 2 years.
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Just to put this in perspective, here are the major economies' growth over the past couple of quarters.
Switching to the equity markets, here are some recent trends:
1. Market technicals don't look great.
2. Gold mining shares have taken a punishment over the past 5 years and continue to fall (as gold prices hover near multi-year lows). With a 2015 rate hike now highly likely, it's a tough road ahead for the sector.
Shifting to the energy markets, below are the latest developments.
1. According to a report from the federal government, US crude production is expected to decline in July. Eagle Ford is supposed to undergo a particularly sharp decline. Perhaps.
2. US crude oil inventories declined more than expected last week. Crude oil rallied sharply on the back of these reports.
Now some Food for Thought - 5 items:
1. 88% of Russians express confidence in Putin.
2. Related to the above, increasing numbers of Russians have a negative view of the West, particularly the US (something I discussed a few months back).
3.Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) usage around the world.
4. The fear of Brexit may be overblown
5. Apparently the US has more women in prison than China, India and Russia combined.
Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com
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