Chinese Stocks Tumble, Qatar Builds With Slaves
Sober Look | May 29, 2015 06:00AM ET
Let's take a look at the latest developments in US energy markets where we continue to see larger than expected drawdowns of crude oil inventory.
However, while crude oil stocks continue to slide on strong gasoline demand, US production has leveled off at 9.4mm bbl/d. This is hardly the outcome the Saudis would like to see.
Moreover, the amount of crude oil in storage is still extraordinarily high, with the declines simply following the seasonal pattern. Here is what crude oil inventory looks like when measured in terms of "days of supply". Unless we see a major geopolitical disruption, those expecting a quick price recovery in crude oil are likely to be disappointed.
Switching to the Eurozone, we can clearly see how the uncertainty of stalled negotiations with the creditors is eroding the recent gains in Greek business confidence.
A default on IMF payments in June seems increasingly likely. One of the more immediate risks of such an even is the ECB cutting off the lifeline (ELA financing) to Greek banks.
While the risk of contagion from Greece remains low, Portuguese and Spanish bond yields rose on growing anti-austerity sentiment in those nations.
Outside of the political risks, the Eurozone economy continues to improve. Spain's GDP growth (QoQ) was the highest since 2007.
Deflation fears are subsiding as consumer inflation expectations index turns positive.
In another Eurozone-related development, US and euro-based LIBOR rates continue to diverge. This is becoming increasingly painful for those receiving euro LIBOR (or Euribor) and paying dollar LIBOR on currency swaps.
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Yesterday we saw the first "panic" selling in China's equity markets as brokers tighten margin lending. Also a number of new IPOs are hitting the market which will drain liquidity. The market gave up 6.5%. But no worries -- many retail investors view this as a buying opportunity.
In US equity markets we continue to see dwindling ranks of bearish investors. From a technical perspective, this type of complacency is dangerous.
Finally, food for thought section -- 4 items:
1. Here is a look at select economies around the world that are similar in GDP to various US states.
2. The map below shows what the last action of each central bank was: rate cut, rate hike, or ongoing quantitative easing.
3. US states that abolished the death penalty.
4. Preparations for the Qatar World Cup were extraordinarily costly in terms of loss of life. "Slave labor" of migrant workers was used to build luxurious facilities.
Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com
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