Tuesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Apr 28, 2015 05:39AM ET
EUR/USD
Four consecutive daily close higher high, define near-term uptrend from 1.0660 higher base. Yesterday’s fresh extension through psychological 1.09 barrier, peaked at 1.0925 and closed for the second day within daily cloud, following consolidation around cloud base at 1.0850. Near-term technicals maintain positive tone, with daily indicators breaking into positive territory and daily 20d Bollinger bands expanding and supporting further bullish extension. Descending daily 55SMA reinforces initial barrier at 1.0825, yesterday’s peak, above which to focus upper Bollinger band at 1.0990 and psychological 1.1000 barrier, ahead of key resistances at 1.1034/50, 06 Apr / 26 Mar former double top. Corrective easing should be ideally contained above 1.0818, yesterday’s lows and near Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0664/1.0925 rally, to keep near-term bullish structure intact. Key support lies at 1.0766, daily 10/20SMA’s bull cross, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and break here to sideline near-term bulls.
Res: 1.0890; 1.0925; 1.0990; 1.1000
Sup: 1.0863; 1.0851; 1.0818; 1.0782
EUR/JPY
The cross enters near-term consolidative phase, after recovery leg from 126.08, peaked at 130.10 on Friday. Yesterday’s positive close that came after Friday’s long-legged Doji, gives positive signal, however, daily high and close below fresh peak at 130.10, suggest further consolidation. Near-term price action is entrenched within 128.82/130.10 range, levels that mark initial support/resistance, with the range’s lower boundary, also near former peak at 128.75 and mid-point of 127.44/130.10 upleg, reinforced by daily 20SMA, expected to ideally contain, before fresh attempts higher. Studies of lower timeframes are bullish, with bullish setup of daily SMA’s and north-heading indicators, supporting fresh rallies. Renewed penetration of 130 barrier to open daily cloud base at 130.42 and signal extension towards daily 55SMA at 130.86 and psychological 131 barrier, also daily 20d upper Bollinger. Alternatively, loss of pivotal 128.82 support, would delay and open way for stronger correction.
Res: 129.96; 130.10; 130.46; 130.86
Sup: 129.45; 129.00; 128.82; 128.45
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GBP/USD
The pair remains well supported and continues to trend higher, with yesterday’s extension above Friday’s high / daily 100SMA at 1.5185, posting fresh high at 1.5259. Strong bullish tone, present on all timeframes, suggests further action higher, with key short-term barrier at 1.5551, high of 26 Feb, coming in near-term focus. Five consecutive positive daily close, mainly in long green candles, defines strong uptrend, with the second wave off 1.4854, 21 Apr low, looking for its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.5343, initial target. Overbought conditions of 4-hour studies, suggest corrective action in the near-term, with strong support at 1.5105, yesterday’s low and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4854/1.5259 upleg, expected to contain dips.
Res: 1.5259; 1.5318; 1.5343; 1.5370
Sup: 1.5216; 1.5185; 1.5105; 1.5080
USD/JPY
The pair consolidates around initial support at 119 zone, daily cloud base, following yesterday’s recovery rejection at 119.42, under descending 20SMA and subsequent easing to 118.89, where the pullback found footstep. Yesterday’s positive close eases immediate downside pressure, however, long upper shadow of yesterday’s daily candle, still shows strong selling interest. Negatively aligned near-term technicals keep the downside at risk, with extension below 119 handle and violation of yesterday’s low at 118.76, seen as a trigger for fresh attempt at key 118.52/31 support and resumption of larger downmove from 120.08, on violation of the latter. Conversely, break above 120.42, yesterday’s recovery high and daily 20SMA at 120.53, to neutralize and shift focus towards key near-term barrier at 120.08.
Res: 119.42; 119.53; 119.76; 120.08
Sup: 118.90; 118.76; 118.52; 118.31
AUD/USD
The pair remains well supported and resumes bull-leg off 0.7681, 21Apr higher low, after eventual break and close above pivotal 0.7841 barrier, high of 17 Apr. Today’s fresh extension higher tests descending daily 100SMA at 0.7882, on approach to psychological 0.79 barrier, also Fibonacci 76.4% expansion of the wave from 0.7681, higher low of 21 Apr, marking the last obstacle on the way towards key short-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.7936, 24 Mar high. Strong bullish tone dominates on all timeframes and supports further upside, as the pair made four consecutive positive daily closes. Break above pivotal 0.7936 barrier, to open next target at 0.7971, 100% Fibonacci expansion, ahead of psychological 0.80 barrier. Session low at 0.7832, along with previous peak at 0.7841, should ideally contain corrective dips.
Res: 0.7903; 0.7936; 0.7971; 0.8000
Sup: 0.7857; 0.7832; 0.7790; 0.7763
AUD/NZD
The cross resumes recovery after yesterday’s brief consolidation and breaks above psychological 1.03 barrier, heading towards pivotal barrier at 1.0337, lower top of 26 Mar, regain of which to complete 1.0337/1.0016 downleg and confirm daily double-bottom at 1.0033/16, for fresh recovery acceleration. Break higher to open daily cloud base at 1.0371, with psychological 1.04 barrier, expected to come in near-term focus. Stronger rallies could extend to the lower top of 18 Mar at 1.0435 and Fibonacci 138.2% projection at 1.0460. Daily low at 1.0285 and yesterday’s low at 1.0245, mark strong support zone, ahead of former congestion tops at 1.0200/15 zone, where corrective action should be ideally contained.
Res: 1.0337; 1.0371; 1.0400; 1.0435
Sup: 1.0300; 1.0245; 1.0217; 1.0200
XAU/USD
Spot gold regained ground after yesterday’s, after downside rejection above breakpoint at 1173, Friday’s low / daily cloud base and subsequent strong acceleration higher that peaked at 1207 and closed above psychological 1200 support. Yesterday’s rally neutralized downside risk, with near-term technicals now holding firm bullish tone. On the other side, daily studies are neutral and require break above recent congestion tops at 1210, to regain bullish tone for fresh acceleration towards key 1124 barrier, 06 Apr high / daily cloud top, reinforced by 200SMA. Yesterday’s close in long green candle supports the notion, with corrective dips below 1200 handle, expected to ideally hold above 1194, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1175/1207 rally and keep fresh near-term bulls in play.
Res: 1203; 1207; 1210; 1215
Sup: 1200; 1194; 1191; 1187
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