Friday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Mar 27, 2015 05:29AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro resumes lower, following yesterday’s repeated failure to break above near-term congestion tops and extend corrective rally from 1.0461 low. The pair reversed quickly after leaving fresh marginally higher high at 1.1050 and cracked psychological 1.08 support, also daily Tenkan-sen line, after ending near-term narrow consolidation above previous footstep 1.0855, where pullback was contained by daily 20SMA. Break below the moving average and bull-trendline connecting 1.0461/1.0612 lows, signals fresh acceleration lower, with higher low of 23 Mar at 1.0766, marking initial target, ahead of psychological 1.07 support and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0461/1.1050 rally at 1.0686. Daily close below 20SMA to confirm near-term bearish stance.
Res: 1.0855; 1.0894; 1.0950; 1.1013
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0766; 1.0700; 1.0686
EUR/JPY
The pair remains under pressure and resumes near-tem reversal from 130.30 zone, where recovery rallies were capped by daily Kijun-sen line. Fresh acceleration lower broke below daily Tenkan-sen line / daily 10SMA supports, signaling fresh easing. Weak near-term technicals are supportive for further weakness, with break below 129 handle, to open higher base at 128.30 zone and increase risk of full retracement of 126.89/131.49 rally. Yesterday’s close in long red candle, along with bearish daily studies and descending daily 20SMA maintaining descend, support the notion.
Res: 129.85; 130.16; 130.50; 130.85
Sup: 129.00; 128.72; 128.30; 128.00
GBP/USD
Cable is losing traction and attempts below near-term consolidation range floor, after yesterday’s fresh attack at pivotal 1.50 barrier was capped by descending daily 20SMA and subsequent strong reversal penetrated initial 1.4830 support. Yesterday’s close in red, with daily candle’s long upper shadow, confirms bear-pressure, with near-term indicators establishing in the negative territory and bearish setup of daily technicals. Close below 1.48 handle to confirm bears and open way for further easing towards higher lows at 1.4721 and 1.4686, higher lows of 20/19 Mar. On the upside, daily Tenkan-sen line marks initial resistance at 1.49, with regain of levels above hare required to sideline immediate downside risk. However, only close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4976 and near-term congestion tops at 1.50 zone, would revive near-term bulls and shift focus higher.
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Res: 1.4868; 1.4900; 1.4953; 1.4992
Sup: 1.4830; 1.4805; 1.4757; 1.4721
USD/JPY
The pair trades in near-term consolidative phase within 119.00/40 range, after yesterday’s acceleration lower nearly fully retraced 118.22/122.01 rally, with downside rejection followed by quick recovery that holds above 119 handle for now. Neutral hourly studies suggest further consolidation, before fresh attempts lower, as setup of 4-hour studies remains bearish. Daily studies are gaining bearish momentum and widening 20d Bollinger bands signaling further action. Loss of 119 handle to open next support at 118.74, daily Ichimoku cloud top, with fresh acceleration lower to focus yesterday’s low at 118.31 and higher base at 118.22, for further retracement of 116.86/122.01 rally. Conversely, break above near-term consolidation range tops at 119.40, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 121.19/118.31 downleg, would signal fresh corrective action and sideline immediate downside risk, with regain of psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, needed to confirm and revive near-term bulls.
Res: 119.40; 119.75; 120.00; 120.51
Sup: 119.00; 118.74; 118.31; 118.22;
AUD/USD
The pair remains under pressure and extends near-term reversal from fresh high at 0.7936, on renewed attempts below 0.78 handle. Yesterday’s 0.7799/0.7882 corrective bounce was short-lived, as fresh acceleration lower kept the price within near-term bearish channel off 0.7936 high. Tone of near-term studies remains weak and suggests further corrective action of 0.7611/0.7936 upleg, before bulls re-assert, as daily studies are gaining bullish tone and see current pullback as corrective action before fresh push higher. Strong support lies at 0.7735, daily 20SMA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.7611/0.7936 rally, where extended dips should be ideally contained, before fresh attempts higher. Daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines offer initial supports at 0.7763/47. Daily close below 0.7735 support would be seen as bearish signal.
Res: 0.7833; 0.7882; 0.7911; 0.7936
Sup: 0.7785; 0.7763; 0.7735; 0.7690
AUD/NZD
The cross remains congested within 1.0270/1.0330 range, after corrective rally from fresh low at 1.0216 was capped at 1.0330, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0526/1.0216 downleg. Double Doji confirms indecision, with near-term studies in neutral mode. Break of either side is required to establish fresh direction. Overall, bearish tone sees limited upside action and risks retun to 1.0216 low in case of los of 1.0270, range floor. Conversely, break above congestion tops at 1.0330 to signal extend corrective action towards next barrier at 1.0371, daily Kijun-sen line / 50% retracement of 1.0526/1.0216 descend.
Res: 1.0330; 1.0351; 1.0407; 1.0435
Sup: 1.0280; 1.0257; 1.0216; 1.0200
XAU/USD
Spot Gold consolidates above psychological 1200 support, after yesterday’s acceleration higher peaked at 1219 and subsequent pullback contained and closed above 1200 handle. Technicals remain positive and supportive for fresh attempts higher and eventual full retracement of 1223/1142 downleg, as the price is poised for the second strong positive weekly close. However, prolonged consolidative phase is expected ahead of fresh attempts higher, with extension of corrective easing below 1200 handle, expected to be contained at 1190, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1142/1219 rally. Daily 10/20SMA’s bullish cross at 1179, underpins the action and marks near-term breakpoint. Renewed attempts higher need to clear cracked daily 100SMA at 1208, to open yesterday’s peak at 1219 and lower top of 02 Mar at 1223.
Res: 1208; 1214; 1219; 1223
Sup: 1199; 1194; 1190; 1185
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