Monday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Apr 20, 2015 04:40AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro ended past week in positive mode, following four consecutive positive daily closes and break and close above daily 20SMA at 1.0791. Last Friday’s rallies extended to 1.0847 high, after cracking 1.0837, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.1034/1.0519 descend. Near-term consolidation is under way, with Friday’s lows at 1.0736/32 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0519/1.0847 rally at 1.0722, marking initial support, where consolidative action should be ideally contained, to keep bullish tone on near-term studies intact for fresh attempts higher. Extension above Friday’s peak at 1.0847, to open next significant barrier at 1.0905, daily Ichimoku cloud base, penetration of which to open way for possible return to key barriers at 1.1034/50, tops of 06 Apr / 26 Mar. Daily indicators are heading north and support further upside. Daily Kijun-sen line marks initial support at 1.0764, ahead of 1.0732/22, loss of which to delay immediate bulls and allow for stronger correction towards 1.0683 and 1.0644, 50% and 61.8% retracement of 1.0519/1.0847 upleg, with break of the latter to neutralize near-term bulls.
Res: 1.0822; 1.0847; 1.0886; 1.0905
Sup: 1.0764; 1.0732; 1.0683; 1.0644
EUR/JPY
The cross comes under pressure after hitting marginally higher recovery high at 128.75 and nearly fully erased last Friday’s gains from 127.74 to 128.73. Upside rejection under daily Kijun-sen line at 127.80, could be a signal of reversal, if the price loses 127.80/70 supports, Fibonacci 38.2% of 126.26/128.75 upleg / Friday’s low. Further easing to open 127.50, 50% retracement initially, while loss of 127.21, Fibonacci 61.8% level, is required to confirm reversal. Hourly studies are at the midlines, while 4-hour studies are still holding positive tone. Overall picture remains bearish, with descending daily 20SMA, currently at 129.06, capping the action and only break here to revive near-term bulls and signal further recovery.
Res: 128.14; 128.75; 129.06; 129.29
Sup: 127.74; 127.50; 127.21; 126.73
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GBP/USD
Cable eventually cracked key 1.50 barrier, on Friday’s spike to 1.5051, but failing to close above 1.50. However, weekly bullish engulfing, gives strong reversal signal, despite hesitation to clearly break pivotal 1.50 barrier that resulted in last Friday’s daily candle with long upper shadow. Near-term studies remain bullish, with positive setup of daily technicals, suggesting renewed attempts higher. Friday’s lows that created near-term base, offer initial support at 1.4915 and should ideally contain. Otherwise, stronger correction would be likely near-term scenario, with extended dips, expected to hold above sideways-moving daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4832, to keep the structure intact, while close below here would soften near-term tone and sideline attempts higher.
Res: 1.4982; 1.5008; 1.5051; 1.5100
Sup: 1.4914; 1.4865; 1.4832; 1.4810
USD/JPY
The pair remains under pressure and resumes descend off 120.83 peak, after last Friday’s hesitation and close at daily cloud base that resulted in daily Doji candle. Today’s fresh acceleration lower heads towards key short-term support at 118.31, return to which to complete 118.31/120.83 bull-phase and confirm lower top at 120.83, for further extension of larger descend from 122.01 peak. Bears continue to dominate on all timeframes, with formation of daily 20/55SMA’s bear cross at 119.60 confirming negative structure. Daily cloud base at 118.92 marks initial resistance, ahead of daily 20SMA at 119.57, where corrective attempts should be capped.
Res: 118.92; 119.25; 119.57; 119.73
Sup: 118.31; 118.00; 117.35; 117.00
AUD/USD
Positive weekly close keeps the upside in focus for further recovery attempts, however last Friday’s close in red suggests consolidative action that is expected to precede fresh attempts higher. The pair holds positive near-term tone, after today’s open with gap higher and price action above 0.78 handle. Fresh attempts above Friday’s high at 0.7841, also Fibonacci 76.4% of 0.7936/0.7531 descend, to confirm bullish resumption towards key short-term barrier at 0.7936, peak of 26 Mar. Only loss of Friday’s low and consolidation range floor at 0.7757, would delay and signal stronger correction that should hold above 0.7696, daily 20SMA, to keep positive structure intact.
Res: 0.7825; 0.7841; 0.7882; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7789; 0.7757; 0.7732; 0.7696
AUD/NZD
The cross holds negative near-term tone and fills overnight’s gap, on easing from session peak at 1.0152, with immediate focus at 1.0104, last Friday’s low and 1.0074, 15 Apr low and the bottom of near-term range. Last week’s upside rejection and range’s top at 1.0217, maintain negative bias and sees risk of eventual break below range floor and return to fresh historical low at 1.0016 and attempt on parity level. Daily/weekly close in red, maintains downside pressure, with price action being capped by descending daily 20SMA.
Res: 1.0152; 1.0175; 1.0200; 1.0217
Sup: 1.0104; 1.0074; 1.0016; 1.0000
XAU/USD
Spot gold trades in consolidative phase between 1200 and 1207, with near-term studies being positively aligned, following Friday’s positive close above 1200 handle. On the other side, weekly Doji confirms hesitation, while long lower shadow of the weekly candle, signaling strong buying interest. Ascending daily 20SMA reinforces pivotal support at 1200 and while the price action holds above, scope will exist for attempts above pivotal 1207/1210 barrier, close above which to confirm completion of near-term consolidative phase and resumption of recovery rally from 1183, low of 14 Apr.
Res: 1207; 1210; 1214; 1219
Sup: 1200; 1197; 1194; 1188
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